Although national polls show Mitt Romney trailing Rudy Giuliani by at least 20 points in the Republican presidential primary race, Las Vegas oddsmakers rate the two as dead even.
Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, and Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, each have a one-in-three chance of winning the GOP nomination, according to America’s Line, the Las Vegas oddsmakers.
“This guy is phenomenal,” America’s Line president Benjamin Eckstein said of Romney. “We watched him when he took over the Olympics in Utah and made that a smashing success.
“Then he went to Massachusetts and took the governorship in the bluest state in the union,” he added. “The guy’s got that granite jaw and just looks presidential.”
But Eckstein, whose syndicated America’s Line column appears in 125 daily newspapers, ranks both Romney and Giuliani behind the front-runner, Sen. John McCain. The Arizona maverick is considered even money to clinch the Republican nomination.
In other words, a $1 wager on McCain would net $1 if he secured the nomination. That same dollar, wagered successfully on Romney or Giuliani, would net $3.
Of course, it is illegal to bet on presidential elections in the U.S. But that doesn’t stop thousands of Americans from placing bets at dozens of offshore bookmakers, such as BetUS.com, which operates in Canada and Costa Rica.
“It’s been massive,” said Christopher Bennett, spokesman for BetUS.com, which takes bets on the 2008 presidential race. “It’s part of a real phenomenon that’s been catching on in the last couple years that we call pop-culture gambling.
“We’re seeing less [betting] on sports and more on things that are happening in the news cycle,” he added. “Politics, celebrity stuff, movie box office openings, weather cycles — just about anything topical.”
With the 2008 presidential race becoming increasingly topical, Eckstein is giving a slight edge to McCain in a theoretical match-up with New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, whom he rates as even money to clinch the Democratic nomination. He gives Illinois Sen. Barack Obama a one-in-three chance and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards a one-in-five chance of becoming the Democratic nominee.
“We’re prepared to probably move Edwards up a couple of notches because he has done well in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, and he’s not encumbered by being in office right now,” Eckstein said. “So we will probably move him up with Obama up by making them either exactly the same number or within a whisker of each other.”
Former Vice President Al Gore has the potential to become a first-tier candidate on the Democratic side, although he has said he is not running. Among Republicans, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is the only contender capable of moving into the top tier, Eckstein said.
Eckstein doesn’t bother giving odds to most of the other presidential candidates because he considers them longshots. These include Democrats such as Connecticut Sen. Christopher Dodd and Republicans such as Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback.
“These are the guys I put in my no-prayer category,” Eckstein said. “We call them the usual suspects.”
ODDS ON PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES
REPUBLICAN NOMINEE
» John McCain: 1/1
» Mitt Romney: 3/1
» Rudy Giuliani: 3/1
DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE
» Hillary Rodham Clinton: 1/1
» Barack Obama: 3/1
» John Edwards: 5/1
– Source: America’s Line
