SUDDENLY, BOB DOLE’S NOMINATION no longer seems inevitable. Having Won less than a quarter of the vote in the Iowa straw poll, he now trails Bill Clinton in national surveys. Focus groups suggest that the age issue is beginning to bite, and the return of a campaign contribution to a group of gay Republicans indicates a touch of panic.
Maybe the Dole campaignwill shake off these troubles and cruise to victory. But maybe not. As the GOP agenda sinks ever deeper into the Senate’s bog, Senator Dole’s downhill trajectory could accelerate. A poor showing in the November 17 Republican presidential debate, combined with, say, a third-place finish in the accompanying Florida straw poll, would mark the beginning of the end. By Christmas, Bob Dole could be out of the Presidential race, graciously yielding to the man who will have emerged as leader of the Republican field: Colin Powell.
Half of all Republicans, in a recent U.S. News poll, already say they want Powell to run for president. As Dole falters, all Powell has to do is to shed his cloying coyness about the pursuit of elective office, and temper his pundit-pleasing disdain for political parties. He will have to move, with all deliberate speed, to make clear both his interest in the presidency, and his judgment (with all suitable rhetorical qualifications and modifications) that his rightful home is the Republican party. At that point, Powell will be the only potential Republican nominee who easily beats Clinton in the polls — and the candidate whose biography, character, and personal deportment make a particularly attractive and pointed contrast to Clinton.
Still, Powell is a moderate, and will present himself more or less as such – – “a fiscal conservative, with a social conscience,” as he says in his new book. Can a moderate win the nomination of a conservative, newly-energized, Reagan-Gingrich Republican party? Yes — especially if Powell throws a few bones to conservatives by saying the right things about personal responsibility, no new taxes, and limited government.
In any case, remember: Bill Clinton will be running in 1996 as a me-too Republican, muting the ideological contrast Republicans were able to draw with him and the Democrats in 1994. And many conservative primary voters will reassure themselves that a Gingrich4ed House, and a Senate with an increased GOP majority, will continue in any event to move public policy in the right direction. Gingrich’s ideological victory in 1994 may have established the groundwork for a far less ideological election in 1996 — especially given the absence of any candidate like Ronald Reagan, who commanded both ideological loyalty and personal admiration. If Gingrich were a viable presidential candidate, there might be less of an opening for Powell. But Gingrich will continue to be preoccupied by the Hill for the next two months – – and by then, if Powell is in, it will be hard for Gingrich to justify launching so high-risk a candidacy.
There would, of course, be conservative opposition to Powell. But conservatives will likely remain divided between Phil Gramm and Pat Buchanan – – whereas moderate Republicans will abandon Pete Wilson and Lamar Alexander to close ranks behind Powell. And lots of reasonably conservative primary voters aren’t as ideological as some in Washington like to think. It won’t be easy for his opponents o paint General Powell, Ronald Reagan’s national seurity adviser, as a typical moderate Republican squish.
So Powell wins the Republian nomination, picks a pro4ife running mate to obvite a third-party right-to-life effort, and defeats Clinton.
Would a Powell presidency be a good thing? The idea presents both risks and opportunities for enthusi- asts of the revolution of 1994. The risk is that a Powell presidency could thwart hopls for a fundamental transformation of the Republicah party and American politics. A Powell administration would be centrist and establishmentarian. The impetus to radical reform of the welfare state might well peter out; Powell would be to Gingrich what Bush was td Reagan.
On the other hand: Reagan !was retired. Gingrich won’t be. A Gingrich-led Republican Congress could continue to push domestic policy to the right under the umbrella of a Powell ” ” The exam- presidency. mere ple of an up-by-the- bootstraps black Republican war hero as president could have a!broadly conservative cultural effect. And a (presumitbly) huge victory by Powell, running as a Republicln, would expand and solidify the emerging Republican majority. So, the ide- ological opacity of a Powell presidency notwithstand- ing, it could be a useful way station on the road to a lasting conservative realignmen!.
This may be wishful conservative thinking. In any event, a Powell candidacy may never happen. U.S.
News tells us that “political proin both parties think he won’t run.” The New York “imes writes that “ex- perts consider it unlikely that the general, a moderate on many social issues, could win the Republican nom- ination.” But the pros and experts are usually wrong. If I had to bet today on one person for the Republican presidential nomination, I’d put my money on Colin Powell.
by William Kristol
