Political betting markets moved only slightly after President Trump said he tested positive for the coronavirus early Friday morning, giving Trump barely lower odds for reelection while marginally boosting Vice President Mike Pence and former Vice President Joe Biden.
According to PredictIt, Trump traded at a 36% chance of winning Friday morning, before rising to 39%, around the time reports called his case “mild.” On Thursday, he traded at 42%. The White House said on Friday Trump is working from his residence.
Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s odds of winning jumped four points to 66% in response to the news, while Pence jumped two percentage points to 3%.
Pence, who said on Friday that he tested negative for the virus, is next in line for the presidency. Trump first revealed his diagnosis in a 1 a.m. tweet.
Hope Hicks, a close Trump aide who traveled with him throughout the week, tested positive earlier in the day and began exhibiting symptoms the evening prior.
According to ElectionBettingOdds.com, Biden’s chance of winning the election is 61%, up 1 percentage point in the last day, while Trump’s is 36%.
“In situations like this, betting makes people particularly uncomfortable,” he said. “The largest betting market on politics, Betfair, has temporarily suspended trading on Trump and related markets,” said ElectionBettingOdds’s Maxim Lott.
His site tracks a range of political betting markets, including from PredictIt.
Prediction market Smarkets on Friday also halted trading for a period on all of their political markets involving Trump.
This morning we halted our markets involving Donald Trump after he tested positive for coronavirus.
Having reviewed the situation, we will reopen the markets for trading at 10:30 BST and continue to monitor things closely.
— Smarkets (@smarkets) October 2, 2020
“The news not only impacted the betting markets but was also reflected in a roughly 2% plunge in stock markets futures as the news broke,” Lott said.
Trump’s stock took a hit earlier in the week following the first of three presidential debates against Biden.
