A new LA Times poll released on Sunday finds that the GOP presidential race in California is a dead heat among likely voters: Donald Trump leads Ted Cruz by just one point—36 percent to 35 percent—with John Kasich in third place at 14 percent. The California primary is more than two months away, but with 172 delegates up for grabs—more than Florida and Ohio combined—it’s a critical state that could determine whether or not Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination.
As THE WEEKLY STANDARD reported before Cruz won Utah and Trump won Arizona on March 22, Cruz can keep Trump well below the 1,237 delegates needed to win the GOP nomination with key victories in the Midwest and the West:
What would it take to keep Trump under 1,100 delegates? One scenario would involve defeating Trump in key states in the Midwest and the West: Utah on March 22, Wisconsin on April 5, Indiana on May 3, and Nebraska on May 10. During this time, Trump could rack up wins in several states: Arizona on March 22, New York on April 19, five northeastern states on April 26, and West Virginia on May 10. Trump and Cruz could split delegates proportionally in Oregon on May 17 and Washington on May 24. The nomination would still be up for grabs. Then the stakes couldn’t be higher on June 7, the last day of the Republican primaries, when almost as many delegates will be awarded on a winner-take-all basis as there were on March 15. If Trump won New Jersey and New Mexico on June 7, but lost primaries in South Dakota, Montana, and California that same day, he could fall more than 150 delegates short of the nomination. It’s hard to overstate the importance of California, which has 172 delegates at stake (more than Florida and Ohio combined). California awards almost all of its delegates on a winner-take-all basis by congressional district (3 delegates for each of its 53 congressional districts). If Trump takes all of the delegates in California, he would be within spitting distance of the nomination in this scenario. But mixed results in the Golden State would still leave Trump significantly short of a majority. What might the GOP presidential race look like in California two and a half months from now? The only good answer right now is: Who knows?
Polling from last week shows that Cruz has a narrow lead over Trump in Wisconsin’s April 5 primary, but public polls haven’t been conducted in the other key Midwestern and Western primaries where Trump could lose the GOP nomination.
