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GOP Opportunities in Pennsylvania

By Gary Andres

John McCain faces an uphill battle against Barack Obama in Pennsylvania. But the Arizona Senator’s prospects could get a boost from an unlikely source: Several GOP House challengers are giving some liberal Democratic incumbents reasons to worry about their own electoral survival. Commentators argue Pennsylvania has gradually transformed from a winnable GOP target to a reliable Democratic bastion over the past two decades. Ronald Reagan won the Keystone state in 1980 and 1984, as did George H. W. Bush in 1988. But since Bill Clinton won in 1992, Democrats have prevailed in every presidential election. Still, John McCain remains competitive according to the most recent polling. As in national surveys, the presumtative Republican nominee lags by only three to five percent, in Pennsylvania. Jay Cost provides a useful historical breakdown of the state and its regional trends in this piece at Real Clear Politics As Cost notes, the state has about a 4-point Democratic tilt. That means if a Republican wins nationally by 5 points, he or she should win Pennsylvania by about 1 point. Or, losing nationally by 5 points probably means a 9-point defeat in Pennsylvania. But these overall patterns mask some intra-state variation. Eastern Philadelphia is trending very Democratic, but other regions are more hospitable to Republicans. If McCain hopes to win Pennsylvania, he’ll probably need the help of a few Republican House challengers trying to knock off liberal Democratic incumbents.Yesterday, I corresponded with National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Ken Spain about the 11th congressional district, where Republican Lou Barletta is challenging very vulnerable incumbent Democrat Paul Kanjorski:

Kanjorski has made several critical mistakes in an environment that has proven to be toxic for incumbents of either party. He has been enveloped in a stench of corruption over questionable earmarks that have gone to benefit a failed business venture for family members. But in addition to that, Kanjorski has committed a number of gaffes that included taking a hit on the Drudge Report for admitting that Democrats used the war for political gain in ’06, and that Lou Barletta’s pro-security stance on immigration made him the equivalent of David Duke. Needless to say, Kanjorski’s poll numbers are sagging as a result.

Next door to Kanjorski, in Pennsylvania’s 10th congressional district Chris Hackett another promising GOP challenger could help run up McCain’s numbers. Hackett’s pitted against Chris Carney, another vulnerable liberal Democrat running in a more conservative district. Spain wrote this about the Pennsylvania 10th race:

Chris Carney faces a tough election in a much more conservative Republican district. Carney’s positions on taxes, abortion, illegal immigration, and his opposition to General Petraeus’ “surge” strategy in Iraq put him far to the left of where his constituents stand on these issues.

Knocking off these two incumbents in Pennsylvania is a real possibility for the GOP. And over in the western part of the state, Democrat incumbent Jason Altmire faces a tough rematch against former GOP Rep. Melissa Hart. Knocking off some of these Democratic incumbents won’t guarantee McCain a win, but it cracks the door wide open for the first GOP Keystone state presidential victory in 20 years.

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