The European Union has enough gas in storage to last through the summer without curtailing demand even if Russia cut its gas flow today, according to a new analysis by energy consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie.
Though EU nations remain deeply dependent on Russian supplies, the report found it is in a decidedly better position to cope without Russian piped gas now than it was several months ago.
That is partly due to mild weather and more sustained imports of LNG and Norwegian gas. If that trend continues, analysts said, European gas storage levels are poised to be within the five-year range by the end of this winter.
“If Russian flows stop in the middle of March, gas in store would be sufficient for the rest of this winter and summer, without demand curtailment,” said Kateryna Filippenko, a top European gas analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
The relatively optimistic prediction comes just one week after the EU joined the West in announcing robust sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
EU leaders are also finalizing details of their plan to phase out the bloc’s dependence on Russian energy supplies, including halting two-thirds of its Russian gas imports before the end of this year. That decision follows similar measures taken last week by the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada, which implemented bans on all Russian energy imports.
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Though Europe’s sanctions do not currently target Russian gas exports, analysts say there is a risk Moscow could move to preemptively cut off its flow to the EU as a form of retaliation.
Still, Europe could pull some additional levers on both the demand and supply sides.
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“Additional supply options include increased imports from Norway and Algeria, as well as higher production from Groningen — these could bring additional 15 bcm in April-October. Europe can also try to persuade Asian buyers to use more coal, which would free up more LNG into Europe — as much as 15 bcm between April and October,” Filippenko said.
