John Boehner will step down as House Speaker on October 30. His announcement was not a total surprise, however, since he’d been expected to leave Congress as early as next year, or even sooner.
His likely replacement is almost certain to be House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California, a fast-rising star in the Republican party. McCarthy, 50, was elected in 2006, became the GOP whip in 2011, then majority leader last year.
McCarthy is enormously popular inside the caucus of House Republicans, more so than any GOP leader with the exception of Paul Ryan, the chairman of the Ways and Means Committee. But shortly after Boehner’s announcement, Ryan said he would not seek the speakership. He indicated he would back McCarthy.
That doesn’t clear the field for McCarthy. He may be challenged by Jeb Hensarling of Texas, the chairman of the Financial Services Committee. And there may be a conservative candidate, probably Jim Jordan of Ohio, the head of the arch-conservative faction known as the Freedom Caucus.
McCarthy, however, doesn’t have the antagonistic relationship with conservatives that has troubled Boehner – quite the contrary. It was their demand for a fresh vote on Boehner as speaker that contributed to his decision to resign. According to Republican officials, Boehner was unlikely to survive that vote.
With Ryan on his side, McCarthy is in a powerful position in the election of a new speaker. McCarthy has few critics among House Republicans. And in recent months, he has been emerging as a serious conservative as well as well as a party leader. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich said McCarthy is the prohibitive favorite to be the next speaker.
Boehner is leaving after achieving a long-sought of having the Pope address a joint session of Congress. When Pope Francis appeared in the well of the House yesterday, Boehner was misty-eyed.
He still must deal with dissident conservatives on shutting down Congress. They are demanding elimination of taxpayer support of Planned Parenthood in a spending bill that comes to vote next month. If that fails, they are prepared to shut down the government, a step Boehner opposes.
The fragility of his hold on the speaker’s office has been clear since 25 Republicans voted against him in January. In the new vote sought by backbencher Mark Meadows of North Carolina, Boehner was believed to have lost additional support.
