Texas Rep. Michael McCaul, the top Republican on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, said he believes that the Russian military’s underperformance in the war in Ukraine may help deter China from taking action against Taiwan in the immediate future.
His comments come shortly after the one-month mark of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with Russian forces repeatedly fumbling as Ukraine has exceeded expectations in its ability to defend itself. The initial aggression sparked concerns among lawmakers that China would attempt to launch a similar assault on Taiwan, but McCaul said seeing Russia struggle and the economic backlash the country has faced may help dissuade a Chinese invasion.
“It’s like [former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice] said: It’s like a bad dating partner all of the sudden. I mean, do they want to be that tied to Putin right now when the sanctions are destroying him, his military has proved to be not as superior as we thought, and the Ukrainian resistance — they’re starting to win. So I think that’s changing Xi’s calculus,” he told the Washington Examiner in an interview at the House GOP retreat in Florida, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping.
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McCaul said that while China is closely watching how the war in Ukraine plays out, the potential of a Taiwan invasion presents a different series of different challenges for the West, asserting that the United States and its allies need to send a strong message that they will not tolerate an unprovoked attack.
“Does [Xi] still want Taiwan? Yeah. Does he still think Biden’s weak? Yes, and [he] sees that as an opportunity. Is it going to be more difficult to sanction China? Yes,” he continued.
“Because we’re so intertwined and our supply chains are so tied to them — and they have the digital yuan that could be a cryptocurrency that could help them evade sanctions — I think China’s a lot more difficult for the United States and NATO,” he added. “But if NATO and our European allies and the United States stand up to China, that will be powerful.”
McCaul noted that there have been some differences within the GOP over the level of U.S. involvement in Ukraine, with some members and Fox News pundit Tucker Carlson, who took aim at the Texas Republican on the issue, pushing for a less interventionist approach. While McCaul said he feels taking a strong stance against Russia’s actions without direct military involvement is the right course of action, he respects those who disagree with his perspective on the matter.
“I get where they’re coming from. They just don’t want to get into another war like Iraq and Afghanistan,” he said. “The difference between the U.S. and Russia is we’re a free country. I respect all these opinions, and we have different opinions in our conference. I’m not saying that they’re any less American. They’re entitled to their opinion. I don’t question their patriotism.”
McCaul added that he sees the “unholy alliance” forged between Russia and China during the Beijing Olympics as cause for concern, noting he and other experts believe that China is helping provide funding for Russia’s efforts in Ukraine.
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“They’re going to be a friend as much as they can to Russia without getting in trouble with the international community, but they’re going to play it very skillfully like they usually do. They’re economically helping them now, so they are starting to bankroll them,” he said. “But they’re just going to play into the extent that is valuable to China, and that is: ‘Are you going to back us with Taiwan?’”
McCaul asserted that he feels the U.S. needs to draw a “red line” with Russia that if it uses nuclear or chemical weapons against Ukraine, it will face strong repercussions.
“I think from a moral standpoint, it would be very difficult to sit back, and it’s already hard enough with one hand tied behind their back like a bully hitting a little kid on a playground, but if he throws chemical and tactical nukes in, I really think he’s crossed the line,” he said. “And I think the administration should make it clear, and NATO and the world, that if you do that, it will come at a high consequence.”
