A study unveiled Wednesday sharply challenges the notion that Fort Belvoir’s worker influx will put thousands of new students in Fairfax County schools.
The number of new students will be only 50, far fewer than the 3,200 that Army planners first laid out in environmental studies, according to the document, which was drafted jointly by George Mason University’s Center for Regional Analysis and the Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness.
Though the study was prepared before the Army cut 3,000 workers from the 22,000 originally set to relocate to Belvoir by 2011, it still presents a dramatically different picture of how the shift will burden the surrounding community. The move is part of the 2005 round of Base Realignment and Closure orders.
The Army has likewise cut its estimates for new Fairfax County students to about 265. Both pared-down estimates appear to be based on a broader look at the number of residents leaving the D.C. metro region as part of other BRAC moves, an exodus expected to take 12,700 school-aged children with it.
The new figures were not embraced by Fairfax County officials.
“I just want to go on record as acknowledging our skepticism at this late date that you’re finding there is such an insignificant impact,” Fairfax County school board member Phillip Niedzielski-Eichner said at a BRAC meeting at Belvoir on Wednesday. “We will look very closely at this analysis.”
Prince William County, according to the study, will see the largest new enrollment due to BRAC, with 358 new students by 2011. Stafford County is expected to take on nearly 145 children.
“These numbers pale in comparison to the ongoing growth in Prince William and Stafford counties already,” the study said.
During that same period, the two counties are together expected to add about 14,000 new school-aged children, according to the study.
