President Trump and Joe Biden have almost identical levels of support among likely Texas voters, according to a new poll.
The UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion survey, conducted from Oct. 20 to Oct. 26, found that Trump holds a mere 1-point lead with 48% support to Biden’s 47% support. Three percent of voters said they supported minor-party candidates, and only 1% said they were still undecided as to who they want to lead the country. Both candidates are within the poll’s 4.2-point margin of error.
The survey, with 873 likely voters, shows that Biden is making gains in traditionally red Texas, which hasn’t been won by a Democratic candidate for president since Jimmy Carter in 1976. The same poll was conducted last month by the UMass Lowell Center and found that Trump had a 3-point lead over Biden.
Of those surveyed, 60% have already voted this year, indicating a large swath of people voting early and voting by mail given the coronavirus pandemic.
“Democrats have been dreaming of a Blue Texas for longer than most Texans have been alive. This is the clearest sign that Democrats are close, but close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, not elections,” said John Cluverius, the center’s associate director.
“Democrats have probably surged almost all the votes they can get out of the Lone Star State. The question is whether Republicans will be motivated enough to turn out on Election Day,” he added.
On Wednesday, the Cook Political Report moved the state from “lean Republican” to “toss up,” with the nonpartisan newsletter noting that “it is clear that it’s more competitive than ever.” NBC News Political Unit’s also moved Texas from its “lean Republican” to “toss up” on Tuesday.
The Cook Political Report’s House editor Dave Wasserman asserted over Twitter that Biden is now favored to win the 2020 presidential election.
“I’d like to ‘sound the alarm’ on Joe Biden: he’s likely to win next week’s presidential election,” Wasserman said on Tuesday.
A RealClearPolitics average of state polls has Trump leading Biden in the Lonestar State by a 2.3-point margin as of Thursday afternoon.
