How China resolves the current crisis with Hong Kong may foreshadow the fate of another of its longstanding irritants, the free and independent island state of Taiwan, which China considers a renegade province and has vowed to reunite with the mainland, with force if necessary.
Just last month Beijing, annoyed by U.S. warships sailing through the 110-mile Taiwan Strait, issued one if its periodic warnings to the U.S. that it is ready for war should Taiwan make any move toward independence.
That prompted the U.S. Congress to issue a warning of its own to China in the form of quick approval of a $2.2 billion arms sale to Taiwan that included U.S. Abrams tanks, as well as Stinger, TOW, and Javelin missiles.
The message was clear, wrote Texas congressman Michael McCaul in an op-ed in The Diplomat: “Don’t mess with Taiwan.”
McCaul, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, was part of a bipartisan congressional delegation that met with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen last month during a stopover in New York City.
“I think our support for Taiwan really frustrates the Chinese. The Chinese are getting very aggressive in Hong Kong … They are also getting very aggressive in Taiwan,” McCaul said in an interview with Maria Bartiromo on the Fox News show Sunday Morning Futures the next day.
“This has been going on for a long time,” McCaul said, “but it’s really hitting a hot spot right now. And we have to support Taiwan. They stand for freedom and democracy in the region.”
Tensions between Beijing and Taipei are nothing new, but a number of factors are stoking fears of a looming showdown.
In a January speech, President Xi Jinping called unification with Taiwan “a must for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in the new era.”
“I think we’re at a point right now where Xi Jinping has made it clear that resolving, or making progress at least on resolving from his perspective, the Taiwan situation is a very top priority for him,” a senior Pentagon official told reporters at the time.
On paper China has vastly superior military strength, but its big concern in launching an invasion to retake the island by force is that the U.S. would intervene.
The U.S. has an intentionally ambiguous policy toward Taiwan in which it does not support Taiwan’s independence and recognizes China as the “sole legal government,” but at the same time opposes any “unilateral changes to the status quo” and provides advanced weaponry to help Taiwan defend itself against a Chinese invasion.
The foundation of the strong but unofficial relationship between the United States and Taiwan is the 40-year-old Taiwan Relations Act, which commits the U.S. to provide Taiwan “with arms of a defensive character” and “to consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means” both a threat to “peace and security” and a “grave concern” to the U.S.
China’s military forces are estimated at more than 2 million active duty personnel, compared to about 275,000 in Taiwan.
For years, the supply of advanced U.S. weaponry and China’s limited ability to launch an amphibious assault kept the balance of power roughly equal.
But China’s rapid military buildup, along with its assessment that the U.S. can be deterred from intervening, is “potentially leading to the most serious crisis in the cross-strait relationship in more than two decades,” writes Michael Chase, senior political scientist with the RAND Corporation.
It’s an assessment backed up by a January 2019 Defense Intelligence Agency report which called the desire to eventually compel Taiwan’s reunification as “the primary driver” for China’s military modernization.
“China has built or acquired a wide array of advanced platforms, including submarines, major surface combatants, missile patrol craft, maritime strike aircraft, and land-based systems that employ new, sophisticated anti-ship cruise missiles and SAMs. China also has developed the world’s first road-mobile, anti-ship ballistic missile, a system specifically designed to attack enemy aircraft carriers,” the report states. “China’s leaders hope that possessing these military capabilities will deter pro-independence moves by Taiwan or, should deterrence fail, will permit a range of tailored military options against Taiwan and potential third-party military intervention.”
China’s current military doctrine is centered around prevailing in regional disputes, including Taiwan, while deterring the potential for what it calls “intervention by the strong enemy,” a not very veiled reference to the U.S.
But when Taiwan’s president met with members of Congress in New York last month, she expressed her fear that the more immediate threat is that China will interfere in Taiwan’s 2020 election in an attempt to get a more pro-Beijing “puppet” elected in her place.
McCaul and House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Eliot Engel of New York have co-sponsored bipartisan resolutions of support for Taiwan, and McCaul says he anticipates the next move will be for the Trump administration to approve the sale of dozens of F-16V fighter aircraft to the island.
“Taiwan’s democracy is a threat to [China] because it stands in the shadow of their authoritarianism, proving there is a better way,” McCaul wrote in his July op-ed. “Our commitment to Taiwan will never be up for discussion with China.”
For now, the Defense Intelligence Agency does not assess any military action as imminent, but with its crackdown on Hong Kong and militarization of islands in the South China Sea, China has shown it is increasingly willing to challenge the West.
Could China surprise the world with an assault to occupy Taiwan?
“It’s our job in DIA to help our decision makers not be surprised by such things,” said the Pentagon official who briefed reporters in January, “although I will not say that we are omniscient.”
“There’s always a chance for surprise,” he said. “Although we are very closely monitoring new situations all the time.”
Jamie McIntyre is the Washington Examiner’s senior writer on defense and national security. His morning newsletter “Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense,” is free and available by email subscription at dailyondefense.com.
