Call it the “skirt length theory”: skirt length is linked to a country’s economic health. The better the economy, the shorter the skirt. When forecasts drop, so do hemlines.
Economists have used fashion as a predictive barometer. Stockbroker George Taylor first noted the correlation between hemlines and stock prices in 1926.
Floor length fashions were it in the 1930’s, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged from 395 to 195 in 1929, and to 40 in 1931. In the 1970’s recession (DJII 590), long styles made a comeback. Women sported Maxi skirts through the gas crisis and rising inflation.
In boom times hemlines rise with the ticker. Skirts rose way above the knee in the ’20’s as flappers danced in the industrial revolution. Mod lengths reached their peak at the precise height of the stock ticker in the ’60’s.
Madonna helped bring back the miniskirt in the mid-’90’s. You guessed it: The ticker was up again, this time rushing to 10,000.
Do women feel bolder in boom times? Are fashion designers more willing to take risks when the economy is good?
At the moment we’re experiencing a cultural renaissance. Amazon is in; Borders is out. Mad Men is the mood. Ladylike hems are in. Spring/summer shows at New York Fashion Week modeled prim ballet colors and sweet wispy fabric.
It’s summer, but this economic freeze has been particularly cold. We’re eager to recognize the thaw, but not yet willing to invest.
Here are some of the mood-setting shows. Bryant Park knows it’s springtime. Does Wall Street?
Eric Beamon (tutus and violins):
Rebecca Minkoff (long flowy skirts!):
Here’s a great reference for historic DJII rates — these don’t necessarily reflect unemployment and investment numbers, but it’s a good standin for bull/bear cultural moods.
And here’s the brief hemline index put to the test:
1920’s: Highest stock prices in the eraly part of that century. Very short flapper skirts.
1930’s: The Great Depression began in 1929, bringing the worst economic conditions in American memory. Women wore very conservative ankle-dusting skirts.
1940’s and ’50’s: This was a post-War economy. Women were still adjusting to our entrance in the workplace; family life restructured. Employment recovered, but the War took a terrible toll on morale — and therefore on investment. Skirts were tea-length or just higher, hitting the knee.
1960’s: Boomtime. This was a period of enormous growth. The mini skirt debuted in 1965.
1970’s: America suffered with the Oil Crisis in ’73 and a market crash the following year. Mini skirts were out; the “mod” decade took a breather. Women wore long, flowy skirts and dresses and welcomed the “gas, grass, or ass” Grateful Dead-following drifter years.
1980’s: The ’80’s were a power decade. Shoulder pads for men and women. Women wore power suits with shorter skirts. After the 1987 Black Monday crash hemlines dropped.
1990’s: Skirts stayed longish for the first part of the decade, then hiked to retro microminis as the market gained strength. The second half of the ’90’s saw growth and lots of bare thigh.
2000’s: We stuck with short lengths for a few years, but in 2008 the markets plunged the furthest they’ve gone since the Great Depression. And fashion is having another nostalgic moment — nostalgic for the long Bohemian styles of the 70’s, and reinventing drapey silhouettes.
Correlation is not causation. But the theory seems to hold!
