What happens when a major global power—one that will soon boast the world’s largest economy to boot—refuses to accept legally “binding” arbitration decisions? We’re about to find out.
A tribunal in The Hague ruled unanimously on a hotly contested territorial dispute between the Philippines and China on Tuesday. Beijing got beaten—badly. The panel ruled that China’s expansive territorial claims to some 90 percent of the South China Sea—enforced through the so-called Nine Dash Line—are illegitimate. It also rebuked Beijing for its aggressive construction of artificial islands throughout the region.
But Beijing is in no rush to recall its latest passports: Even before the decision was announced, the regime said it wouldn’t abide by the panel’s ruling. (The decision is worth no more than “waste paper,” thundered one prominent former Chinese official the other day.) Chinese state media have taken to calling the decision a “nao ju” —a farce, roughly.
Still, as much as it has waved away the decision, it’s clear that Beijing really didn’t want to lose. Even though Beijing often thumbs its nose at established protocol, it still seems to crave global legitimacy. Hence China’s incessant (if increasingly disingenuous) trumpeting of its “peaceful rise,” and its hunger for hosting major events like the Olympics and the World Expo. And so, Beijing claimed to have enlisted some sixty nations to support its position in the Hague, including such maritime powerhouses as Lesotho and Afghanistan. Chinese president Xi Jingping “lost face” because of the ruling, one China expert told the New York Times.
The question now is what happens next. There are no maritime peacekeepers to enforce the decision, after all. And so, while it’s not exactly “waste paper,” the court’s ruling is still basically unenforceable. When an aggressive, expansionist power comes in contact with a feckless and neutered international organization, it’s pretty obvious who’s got the upper hand.
