Enrollment in the Washington area’s suburban school systems has ballooned in the past 30 years, as the District’s schools have lost half of their students.
Fairfax County schools saw enrollment grow by more than 30 percent since 1980, to 169,000 students last year. The system expects nearly 174,000 students in the fall, placing it among the 15 largest districts in the country.
Across the Potomac River in Montgomery County, the region’s second-largest school system expects nearly 2,000 more students in the fall, bringing enrollment close to 141,000. Montgomery’s enrollment has grown by 41 percent since 1980; at the same time as it has become the region’s most racially diverse district.
Between 1980 and fall 2008, the black student population grew to 23 percent of the student body, up from 12 percent. The Hispanic student population grew to 22 percent from 4 percent, while white students dropped to 39 percent of enrollment from 78 percent in 1980.
As the economy stagnates, suburban districts are seeing an influx of students who formerly attended private schools, often with tuition exceeding $20,000 per year.
“That’s a bigger factor this year,” said Bruce Crispell, Montgomery’s director of long-range planning, in an interview earlier this month. He added that it played a role last year, too, in the county’s unexpected enrollment bump.
Crispell cited challenges to enrollment projections faced especially by the larger districts. In economic boom times, it’s difficult to gauge how many students will enroll in areas with new housing developments. In down times, it’s hard to determine how many kids will leave private school, and to what extent less affluent areas may see a doubling-up of families living in single residences.
Next door in Prince George’s County, enrollment boomed until 2004, when the district peaked at about 137,000 students. Since then, enrollment has fallen to about 130,000 students. Prince George’s consistently ranks ahead of only Baltimore City in state test score rankings.
Arlington County’s enrollment has been on an upswing since 2005. This fall the system expects about 20,100 students, up from 18,600 last year. Alexandria, the region’s smallest district, expects about 11,600 students this year, up from 11,200 in 2008.
