President Obama’s already difficult path to reelection became more treacherous, as national population shifts announced Tuesday showed significant migrations away from Rust Belt and Democratic-leaning states to Republican strongholds. Released every 10 years, the Census Bureau figures determine the number of House seats and Electoral College votes each state receives. And the influx of residents to traditionally red states in the south and west is a welcome development for Republicans still relishing the results of midterm elections in which they took control of the House and dozens of state legislatures and governorships.
Arizona Sen. John McCain in 2008 carried five of the eight states that will pick up congressional districts, including Texas — which will receive four additional votes in the Electoral College — the biggest winner nationwide.
Of the 10 states losing congressional seats, eight backed Obama two years ago. New York and Ohio will surrender the most electoral clout, giving up two congressional seats each.
“This matters,” said Dennis Goldford, a political scientist at Drake University in Iowa. “The population has been moving south and west, reliable Republican territory. We don’t have a national presidential election. Obama has to make up those votes somehow.”
Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington each gained an extra Electoral College vote. And Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania each lost one. Florida picked up two seats.
Still, White House officials say the new political math is hardly a game changer, particularly if Obama can maintain the support of independents who helped him best McCain by 192 electoral votes.
“I don’t see why there’s any reason why in a number of these places both parties can’t be equally competitive and I don’t think it will have a huge practical impact,” said White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs.
Some analysts also downplayed the electoral shift.
“Although things shift slightly in the Republican direction, if [Obama] wins the same states he won in 2008, he still wins the presidency,” said Michael McDonald, a George Mason University political science professor who specializes in redistricting. “By and large, the map pretty much stays the same in terms of what states you need to put together to win the presidency.”
Republicans took over a majority of state legislatures now tasked with redrawing congressional lines. But McDonald said that doesn’t ensure electoral gains since Republicans will focus most of their attention on keeping the seats they won this year.
Democrats tried to put the best face on the upcoming changes.
“Democratic communities and constituencies have grown in size in states like Arizona, Florida, Nevada and Washington,” said Rep. Steve Israel, D-N.Y., Chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, referencing states that saw gains in Hispanic residents, who generally vote Democratic. “In states that will lose a seat, the number of Republicans who will be competing with each other creates opportunities for House Democrats.”
The Washington region experienced widespread population growth, including the District for the first time in 60 years, but the area did not gain any congressional seats.
