Evidence of an expansive enthusiasm gap threatening to sink Democrats in November has emerged in Texas, where more voters participated in the 2022 Republican nominating contests than any midterm election primary in state history.
The roughly 2 million voters who pulled the lever in Republican primaries Tuesday amounted to the second-largest-ever turnout for the GOP on primary day in Texas, eclipsed only by the 2.8 million votes recorded in the state’s 2016 presidential nominating contest. The 2 million Texans who voted in Republican primaries this week outnumbered participation in corresponding Democratic contests by nearly 100% and included many with a minimal history of voting in primaries.
“Texans confirmed what we’ve been seeing in our surveys for months: Republican voter enthusiasm is through the roof,” said Calvin Moore, a spokesman for Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California. “It’s a clear sign of the great environment we’re in.”
The Republican enthusiasm advantage as demonstrated by voter turnout in Tuesday’s Texas primaries is a reversal from the last midterm election in 2018. That year, Democrats had the edge, and the participation numbers in the Democratic and Republican primaries revealed as much.
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Republicans still attracted more voters in their primaries four years ago but only enjoyed a 1.5 million-to-1 million advantage, approximately. Sure enough, Democrats romped across the country in November of 2018 as a blue wave swept Republicans from power in Congress. Democrats even picked up a couple of suburban Texas House seats that had been in GOP hands for decades.
This year’s primaries remind Texas Republicans of the last red midterm election wave — 2014, the middle of President Barack Obama’s second term. That year, Republicans flipped nine Senate seats and added to their majority in the House. This year, the party is campaigning to reclaim both the House and Senate, where the Democrats are clinging to majorities of five seats and one seat, respectively.
“Republican turnout was really strong,” said Brendan Steinhauser, a GOP operative in Texas. “The Democrats didn’t have a lot of enthusiasm or energy for this primary.”
The 2022 primaries in Texas marked the first votes of the midterm election cycle under President Joe Biden. Republicans who spent the weeks beforehand monitoring voter sentiment in the state say they are not surprised by the turnout or the disparity in participation between the two parties. Biden’s job approval rating has been mired around 40%, and his brand is toxic, driving voter interest in voting in the primaries — specifically for GOP candidates.
Republican David Carney, an adviser to Gov. Greg Abbott, calls Biden “the greatest gift to Republicans this nation has ever seen since Abraham Lincoln.” Abbott cruised in his primary, dispatching more than half-dozen second-tier challengers.
Republicans were particularly pleased with their performance in the Rio Grande Valley and the majority-Hispanic border counties that typically give the lion’s share of their votes to the Democrats. That was the case yet again Tuesday, but the GOP cut into the Democrats’ margin of victory, giving Republicans hope of flipping a couple of congressional seats in the region.
However, some Democrats argue that Republicans are overhyping just how well the party did in the Rio Grande Valley counties in terms of participation in GOP primaries versus Democratic primaries. In a series of tweets, Democratic operative Matt Barreto, who specializes in Hispanic voting trends, asserted that turnout in Democratic primaries was more robust than news coverage of the nominating contests suggests.
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“In the infamous Zapata County, GOP candidates for Governor COMBINED to receive 101 votes while Democrats combined to receive 2,517 votes,” Barreto tweeted, referring to the border county won by former President Donald Trump in 2020, making him the first Republican presidential nominee to finish on top there in 100 years. “I’m sure [The New York Times] will write 2-page story about this…”
Added Barreto in a second Twitter post, “TEXAS ELECTION DATA: If reporters actually cared about data and not just trying to sensationalize headlines for clicks — BREAKING: GOP SEES MAJOR DROP IN LATINO SUPPORT [2020-to-2022] IN RIO GRANDE VALLEY” and South Texas.
