A D.C.-based think tank predicts that the Islamic State will likely launch an attack against the West over the next 45 days as Muslims begin their celebration of Ramadan.
The Institute for the Study of War’s forecast says that the terrorist group “will likely attack the West” during Ramadan, which begins on June 6 and ends July 5. The Islamic State traditionally uses the annual religious observance to increase the number of attacks and tweak its strategy, the report said.
Europe faces the greatest threat of attacks on sporting events in crowded public venues, including a Euro 2016 soccer tournament between June 10-July 10, according to the report. But attacks against the U.S. are also possible, especially around July 4.
“The risk of ‘lone wolf attacks’ across the West will rise during Ramadan, as indicated in a recent speech by the group’s spokesperson urging followers to target the crusaders in the West,” the report says.
The State Department issued a travel alert for Europe on Tuesday, saying that increased tourism during the summer will provide more targets for potential terror attacks. The warning said that events like the soccer tournament, as well as other sporting events like the Tour de France, could be prime targets.
The warning, which encourages Americans traveling to Europe to be vigilant in public places and on mass transportation, expires Aug. 31.
The Institute for the Study of War report also predicted that the Islamic State will announce new “global affiliates” outside of Iraq and Syria, including in Bangladesh and Southeast Asia.
Iraqi forces last week launched an operation to retake Fallujah from the terrorist group. Military officials have said that the operation is still in the beginning stages and it’s unclear how long it will last.
