Russian President Vladimir Putin might order his military to shoot down American warplanes if the United States tries to implement a no-fly zone to curb the violence of the Syrian civil war, according to Obama administration’s top intelligence official.
“I wouldn’t put it past them to shoot down an American aircraft if they — if they felt that was threatening to their forces on the ground,” James Clapper, the director of National Intelligence, said during a question-and-answer session at the Council on Foreign Relations on Tuesday.
Russia and the United States are on opposite sides of one of the most complex crises in the world, as Putin is helping Syrian dictator Bashar Assad cling to power in a war against U.S.-backed rebels and jihadists that the Obama administration is also trying to destroy. Secretary of State John Kerry tried to negotiate a ceasefire agreement with Russia that would lead to joint operations by the U.S. and Russia against the Islamic State, but he suspended those bilateral talks after Assad’s military announced an end to the ceasefire and pro-regime forces bombed a humanitarian aid convoy.
“I take stock in the nature of the weaponry that they deploy and why they — why they did that,” Clapper said of Russian weapons recently deployed to Syria. “The system they have there is a very advanced air-defense system. It’s very capable. And I don’t think they’d do it and deploy it unless they had some intent to use it.”
Former CIA Director Michael Hayden, who served in President George W. Bush’s administration, agreed that a no-fly zone could be risky. “That’s a great and serious concern,” Hayden told CNN Tuesday afternoon. “Are we now going to live in a world in which in any circumstance in which the Russians are willing to risk a confrontation, we aren’t, and are willing to back down? Think of the implications of that. And so I don’t know that we should automatically reject something that may have real merit for us to do, even through it does impose some risk.”
As an alternative, CIA and military officials proposed sending heavier weapons to the Syrian rebels so that they could defend themselves, but Obama has not authorized the plan. “Even former ardent proponents, including Secretary of State John F. Kerry, have voiced skepticism about any escalation at this point,” the Washington Post reported on Sunday. “He and others fear that the new weaponry could end up killing Russian military personnel, triggering a confrontation with Moscow.”
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has called for a no-fly zone in Syria, but one that would only be established after “a lot of negotiation” with the Russians. “I think a no-fly zone could save lives and hasten the end of the conflict,” Clinton said during the third presidential debate. “This would take a lot of negotiation and it would also take making it clear to the Syrians and Russians that our purpose is to provide safe zones on the ground.”
Kerry’s talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov might provide a window into the shape of such future negotiations, although the Pentagon strongly opposed the idea of cooperating with the Russians. The military coordination would have furthered the U.S. goal of destroying the Islamic State, but it also would have helped Assad, whom President Obama said “must go” more than five years ago.
“It’s likely Assad will be in power when President Obama leaves,” CBS’ Charlie Rose said during the event.
“Well, that’s a fair guess, yeah,” Clapper replied.
