Sen. Lisa Murkowski stands to benefit from Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system in November, but first, she must get through a preliminary round of voting on Tuesday that will winnow the field of candidates.
Murkowski faces a Trump-endorsed opponent, Kelly Tshibaka, after the centrist Republican voted to convict the former president during his second impeachment trial. Both Murkowski and Tshibaka, the former commissioner of Alaska’s Department of Administration, are expected to advance to the general election due to a new system in which the four highest vote-getters move forward regardless of party affiliation.
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Voters cast a ballot for a single candidate in the primary. Under the new ranked-choice voting system, however, which applies only to the general election, voters rank all four candidates according to their preference. Candidates must gain more than 50% of the vote to win the general election, so if one does so on the first round, that person wins.
Since the vote will likely be too divided for a contender to win outright in the first round, the second round eliminates the lowest-scoring candidate, and everyone who voted for that candidate has their votes put toward their second choice. This continues until one candidate has crossed the 50% threshold.
If Murkowski makes it to the general election, she could survive the challenge from Tshibaka due to the way ranked-choice voting works.
Due to her name recognition and bipartisan appeal, Murkowski will likely be ranked somewhere on many voters’ ballots. Though Tshibaka could lead in the beginning of the count by pulling the conservative vote, this lead could shrink as independent and Democratic candidates are eliminated and their votes are redistributed to Murkowski, according to an analysis from FiveThirtyEight.
Alaska will use ranked-choice voting on Tuesday to decide who will complete the remainder of Rep. Don Young’s term after his death earlier this year. Three contenders are on the ballot after the first round of voting in June: former Alaska governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, Nick Begich, of the Begich political dynasty, and former state legislator Mary Peltola, the only Democrat on the ballot. The fourth candidate, independent Al Gross, dropped out of the race.
A second ballot will be held at the same time to decide the four candidates vying for a full two-year term.
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The ranked-choice system is best suited for centrist candidates because they must appeal to a broad range of voters to harness over 50% of the vote.
Ranked-choice voting “gives Alaskans more choices, eliminates the spoiler effect, encourages campaigns to engage voters on issues and helps ensure that winners are elected with the support of a true majority of voters,” says Alaskans for Better Elections, a ranked-choice advocacy group.
Due to the nature of the voting system, it could take days for the race to be decided.
