Mixed messages coming from NJ today. The first is a shock poll from Quinnipiac suddenly jumping Corzine to +5. This result looks a little suspect. Quinnipiac’s last poll (whose survey period ended 8 days before this one’s began) had Christie +1. That’s an awfully big, awfully fast swing. Casting further doubt, Quinnipiac puts Corzine’s share of the vote at 43 percent, even though the same poll has his favorable rating at 41 percent and his job approval at 39 percent. Could Corzine be getting votes from people who don’t like him and don’t like the job he’s doing? Sure! But still . . . Adding to the confusion, the two polls out immediately before Quinnipiac had Christie +3 and +4 (Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling, respectively). And adding to that confusion, both of those organizations had Christie trending slightly upwards from their previous polls. To be sure, all of these numbers are grouped very tightly, so a lot of this action is taking place within the margin of error. That said, even the polls that look good for Corzine have aspects that are problematic for him. For instance, that Quinnipiac poll showing him suddenly +5 also shows that 38 percent of Daggett supporters say they might change their mind and that Christie is +16 in that group. That sounds about right because the same Quinnipiac poll has Christie widening his lead among independents from +9 to +15.
