This year is the first election in which Republicans have real evidence of mounting Obamacare problems instead of just dire predictions. But they’re hardly taking advantage of it, even those fighting for their political survival.
Sens. Pat Toomey, Mark Kirk, Kelly Ayotte, Marco Rubio and Richard Burr, whose tight re-election races will play a key role in determining whether the GOP can hold onto the Senate next year, have said little about the healthcare law on the campaign trail, instead devoting their advertising dollars to other topics.
“It’s not anyone’s No. 1 issue against the Democrats like it used to be,” said Republican pollster Brock McCleary.
President Obama’s beleaguered law is the theme in less than 10 percent of ad spending in Senate races this year, according to Kantar Media, a group that tracks political ads. To some Republican political experts, that’s a mistake, as the Obama administration is already on the defensive in the lead-up to the start of enrollment Nov. 1.
“I think Republicans need to be worried that an opportunity could be missed, as problems with the program reach a fever pitch here in the next few weeks,” McCleary said.
In years past, the National Republican Congressional Committee, Crossroads GPS and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce poured dollars into negative ads about the law. About $1 billion has been spent on advertising around the Affordable Care Act since it was passed, according to Kantar Media.
But this election cycle, Republican incumbents aren’t making Obamacare a top issue, although it’s the first year they have actual proof the law isn’t working as well as its supporters had hoped, as insurers seek to raise rates and pull out of the marketplaces due to heavy losses.
Analysts said they’re not quite sure why struggling incumbents aren’t doing more to capitalize off the law, as it still polls well among the public.
“This seems like low-hanging fruit,” said GOP political consultant Ron Bonjean. “Part of the issue is Republicans have been talking about it and voting on it ’til they’re blue in the face. Now is the time to capitalize, when voters are paying attention.”
Burr, in North Carolina, and Kirk, in Illinois, haven’t run any ads or levied many Obamacare-themed attacks at their opponents. In Illinois, marketplace insurers are raising prices by an average of 46 percent, and Blue Cross Blue Shield and Aetna are seeking to raise rates by 19 percent and 24 percent, respectively.
And New Hampshire’s marketplace recently lost a co-op that had requested a 43 percent rate increase, leaving behind four insurers. One of them, Minuteman Health, wants to raise prices an average of 30 percent for one-fourth of the state’s enrollees.
Ayotte, who is being challenged by Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan, has run ads on job creation and the environment, but not the healthcare law.
In Pennsylvania, where consumer choices are dwindling and insurance prices are rising by double digits, Toomey could lose his seat to challenger Katie McGinty.
All of the state’s 67 counties had at least three insurers selling products last year, but next year that’s set to decline to 28 counties, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.
Instead of trying to tie McGinty to the marketplace troubles, Toomey has spent most of his campaign trying to make her look weak on national security. A Toomey spokesman said he didn’t know whether the campaign plans any Obamacare-themed ads this fall.
That’s left Democrats free to argue they want to improve the law without having to defend it from Republican attacks. McGinty spokesman Sean Coit say his boss is seeking to fix the law’s problems, while Toomey “doesn’t have anything to offer.”
“Whenever she talks about it, she says this isn’t a perfect bill by any stretch,” Coit told the Washington Examiner. “The rate increases are seriously worrying. People need to have not only options, but affordable options.”‘
Not all Republicans are ignoring the healthcare law. Sen. John McCain has run ads attacking his opponent, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, over voting for the 2010 law. Rep. Todd Young, who is seeking Indiana’s open seat, is trying to force his Democratic opponent, former Sen. Even Bayh, to defend rate hikes.
And the Koch-backed group Americans for Prosperity is spending what the group says is a substantial amount of its seven-figure election effort targeting Democrats for supporting the law and blaming them for rising health insurance premiums.
The group started running digital ads in Florida and Indiana last week and plans to launch in Wisconsin soon, according to spokesman Adam Nicholson.
“AFP sees all these candidates need to be asked the question, ‘What are you going to do about this broken law,’ and not be let off easy,” Nicholson said. “That’s something they need to answer for.”
Still, two months remain before the election, leaving Republicans with plenty of time to hammer Democrats over the law if they choose to do so. Most candidates save their advertising dollars for the final weeks before an election, when the most voters are paying attention.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if some start latching onto it,” said Jim Manley, former aide to House Democratic Leader Harry Reid.
But not if they take their cues from Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. Other than promising to repeal the law and replace it with a plan that keeps Americans from “dying on the streets,” Trump has barely mentioned Obamacare on the stump.
“I think this election is not going to rise or fall on healthcare,” Manley said. “It’s been completely dominated by Trump so far, with foreign policy and immigration-related topics.”
