Democrats have their eyes set on the Senate, knowing that if they want to erase traces of the Trump era, they need to clinch both the White House and Congress in November.
Republicans start at a disadvantage as they try to protect their 53-47 Senate majority. The chamber’s 2020 elections map has the GOP defending 23 seats to Democrats’ 12.
The most obvious Democratic targets are Sens. Martha McSally of Arizona, Cory Gardner of Colorado, Susan Collins of Maine, Steve Daines of Montana, and Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Their contests are all listed as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, with McSally and Gardner the most vulnerable.
McSally trails retired astronaut Mark Kelly, the husband of former Arizona Democratic Rep. Gabby Giffords and the apparent nominee, by an average of 6.7 percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics. The outlet has Democratic Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon, the primary favorite, 2.4 points ahead of Collins and ex-North Carolina state Sen. Cal Cunningham in front of Tillis by 3 points, too.
Two-term Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper only earned the right to take on Gardner last week, yet a Democratic Public Policy Polling survey conducted at the end of June gave him an 11-point lead on the incumbent. Earlier public opinion research reflected other double-digit differences between the pair.
Another June poll, this time by the University of Montana, put Steve Bullock, himself the state’s sitting two-term governor, with a 4-point advantage on Daines. But given the study’s margin of error, the rivals are in a statistical tie.
Polls indicate Democratic Alabama Sen. Doug Jones has an uphill battle to secure his first full term, regardless of whether he faces former Attorney General Jeff Sessions or ex-Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville in the fall. The Republican primary runoff is set for July 14.
Democratic Michigan Sen. Gary Peters has a similarly difficult path in the battleground state that’s also pivotal to President Trump and presumptive 2020 Democratic standard-bearer Joe Biden as they vie for the White House. But Michigan’s junior senator has more favorable polls than Jones against his likely Republican challenger, businessman John James.
If Democrats keep their Alabama and Michigan holdings, they only need to flip three or four seats to seize control of the Senate, depending on the presidential race and whether a hypothetical Biden administration could dispatch its vice president to break any voting tie.
Democrats have opportunities in Georgia, Iowa, and Kansas as well, though the Cook Political Report said those states lean Republican.
Democrat Theresa Greenfield, a self-described Iowa “farm kid,” has an average 1-point buffer between herself and Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, according to RealClearPolitics.
An internal Republican poll by the party’s Senate campaign arm found the same gap between former GOP Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach and Democratic state Sen. Barbara Bollier as voters decide who should replace retiring Republican Sen. Pat Roberts. The National Republican Senatorial Committee data, however, gave GOP Kansas Rep. Roger Marshall better odds against Bollier. The primary is on Aug. 4.
Meanwhile, Georgia presents two chances for Democrats.
A Fox News poll last month put Republican Sen. David Perdue ahead of Democratic documentary filmmaker Jon Ossoff by 3 points.
In the special election for the seat held by Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed after Sen. Johnny Isakson retired, Democratic front-runner Raphael Warnock only does well against Loeffler, a Public Policy Polling survey found late last month. Loeffler’s bid has been hampered by accusations of insider trading. Warnock’s 3-point lead evaporates against Georgia Rep. Doug Collins, the other prominent GOP lawmaker seeking the office via a nonpartisan “jungle primary.”
Helen Kalla, a spokeswoman for the Senate Democrat’s campaign committee, pointed to Democratic fundraising and Republican spending as positive signs for her party’s chances four months out from the elections.
“The grassroots support for Democratic candidates is a sign of voters’ motivation to hold Senate Republicans accountable for their toxic agenda this November,” she said.
Joanna Rodriguez, Kalla’s Republican counterpart, hit back: “In states across the country, Democrats have nominated scandal-plagued candidates accused of misleading voters and found in violation of their states’ ethics laws. These candidates are untested and their unapologetic support for the Democrats’ socialist agenda will be rejected this fall.”
Tom Schaller, a political science professor with the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, predicted Democrats would have Arizona and Colorado on their ledger in the fall. He believed the balance of power would come down to Iowa, Maine, Montana, and North Carolina.
“I suspect if Cunningham wins North Carolina, it’s a big night for the Democrats, and if they lose Maine, it’s probably a good night for the GOP,” he told the Washington Examiner.
For Schaller, Trump added a layer of complexity for Senate Republicans.
“As usual, members of the president’s party face a dilemma: Either stick with the White House, which is risky, or try to gain separation, which can be even riskier,” Schaller said. “Trump is a liability in most states with competitive races except Alabama, so trying to run on local and state issues is always smart play for endangered GOP incumbents, whereas Democrats want to nationalize the race by hanging Trump around their necks.”
