There are going to be lots of different ways to examine Donald Trump’s impending loss. But I want to point to a very basic one that’s so simple that it might escape notice: On election night, you should keep an eye on the raw vote totals.

The basic question about Trumpism going forward is whether it is (1) a new and rising tide creating an ideological revolution, or (2) the high-water mark of a dying worldview. I think the raw votes will be instructive on this point.

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