I REMEMBER the last election party I attended, two years ago. It was at the home of a colleague. When news came that Florida went to Gore, I knew it was over and asked the host (a serious mixologist) to fix me one of his classic martinis. But suddenly, news came that Florida had swung back to Bush. Well, then, another drink was in order. A little later, Florida went back in the undecided column. Make it another martini. The next morning I awoke to find the election was still unresolved. (No, I did not have another drink.)
This past Sunday I found myself at yet another election party where no one knew who the winner would be and everyone said it would go down to the wire. But it wasn’t a U.S. election–it was the Bundestag elections in Germany, and the party was at the German embassy. The auditorium was packed with journalists, diplomats, and other “friends of the German-American community.” Screens were tuned to the Deutsche Welle network, which broadcast live, in German. More important, two kinds of beer were served: One of them, Jever (from Friesland), came in bottles. But the second beer came in kegs–Bitburger flown in direct from Germany. The crisp taste is unmistakable.
Waiters walked about with trays of food which disappeared quickly in the sea of hungry guests. There were three kinds of sliced wurst that you could dip in a bold, dark mustard. I also sampled what looked at first to be a blackened mushroom wrapped in bacon. (It was actually a prune in bacon and the one sample was enough.) The freshly baked pretzels were extremely popular–warm to the touch and a Bitburger’s best friend. A pugnacious Hungarian woman was carving away at the smoked salmon, placing them atop baguette slices. One waiter walked out with a tray of shrimp and never made it back–by sheer coincidence I was standing by the door where he entered.
But in spite of all the food and drink, guests were focused primarily on the televisions, waiting for noon (EST) when the first results would arrive. Even if you didn’t speak German, the prognosticators all kept saying two words that needed no translation: “photo finish.” At 12:00 p.m., right on time, the first numbers came in: The Social Democrats had 37 percent, the Christian Democrats 39 percent, the Greens 9 percent, and the Free Democrats 7 percent. There followed much clatter but no outright cheering. Remembering Florida’s “early returns,” I wasn’t about to assume that the conservative chancellor candidate Edmund Stoiber was on his way to Berlin just yet.
(Of course, Germans don’t directly elect their chancellor. They vote for local district representatives and for a political party. The party then sends its members to the Bundestag and they in turn decide who will be the next chancellor, usually by forming coalitions, with a minimum of 301 seats out of 603 needed–though the number of seats fluctuates from one legislative session to the next.)
The current ruling coalition consists of the dominant Social Democrats (SPD) and their minority partner, the Greens. Together they installed Gerhard Schroeder into office. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), along with its Bavarian counterpart, the Christian Social Union (CSU), were hoping to unseat Schroeder with the help of a former partner, the Free Democrats (FDP). Early indications showed that the CDU had made impressive gains over the last four years while the SPD lost votes. But the FDP, who the Christian Democrats needed in order to form a coalition, had also lost votes. Still, many in attendance at the embassy were certain that, unlike in the United States, the numbers were not going to change all that much in the final days and Edmund Stoiber would most likely win.
Indeed, at 12:50 p.m., Stoiber emerged on the television, along with Angela Merkel, head of the CDU. He looked exultant and spoke about how Germany had made its choice–the right choice–and then he profusely thanked all of his supporters. Yet the numbers continued to decline ever so slightly for the CDU, while the SPD’s totals slowly ticked upwards. Half an hour later, the Christian Democrats slipped to 38.9 percent while the Social Democrats rose to 38.1. The FDP was still middling around 7 percent. Another tally showed the CDU/FDP maintaining a hold in the Bundestag–by a mere 5 seats. Later, the hopeful coalition slipped to 297 seats, 4 under the required minimum. (I began to wonder if I could get a martini here.)
Through it all, I noticed the German ambassador, Wolfgang Ischinger, remaining calm and genial, chatting with guests while keeping one eye on the screen. I asked him what he made of this dead heat: “No matter who wins, it is a great victory for democracy, because the extremist parties have been shut out. Both the far left and the far right are gone.” Ischinger, a career diplomat who worked under both Kohl and Schroeder, reminded me that in the 1970s there were fears of resurgent extremist parties, and said that he was relieved to see that threat subsiding. The ambassador’s deputy, the always gregarious Eberhard Koelsch, stressed that now was the time for reconciliation not only among Germans but between Germans and Americans. “A strong German-American relationship is a prerequisite for a strong European-American relationship–we need to work on this in order to get things done around the world. We need clear minds and to not get carried away by the events of the day,” he advised.
By “events of the day,” Koelsch was no doubt referring to Schroeder’s stance on Iraq–adamantly against invasion (a popular position in Germany at the moment). The chancellor even went so far as to say that he wouldn’t “click his heels” to Bush’s demands. Then there were the remarks made by Justice minister Herta Daeubler-Gmelin, who compared Bush’s “tactics” of focusing on foreign policy to the tactics Adolf Hitler used. (Daeubler has now said she will not serve in the next government.)
The party at the embassy was supposed to end at 2:00 p.m., but the winner would not ultimately be known until 6:00 (midnight in Germany). Unlike two years ago, however, the winners and losers were decided by the next morning. The CDU continued its drop and wound up with 38.5 percent of the vote. The SPD climbed to 38.5 percent. The crucial factor was the coalition partners. The FDP ended up with 7.4 percent. Together, the CDU (with 248 seats) and FDP (with 47 seats) could not form a winning coalition, but the SPD (251 seats) and the surging Greens (8.6 percent and 55 seats) were able to maintain their hold–just barely–with 306 total seats. Click here to see an excellent breakdown of votes by district (or Wahlkreis).
So who really won, and who really lost?
Winners: The Green party. For the last four years, the Greens struggled to maintain their partnership with the Social Democrats. Mostly, this meant moving away from the radical left (who advocated policies that encouraged flying only once every few years and raising gas prices to around $5 per gallon). Under Green foreign minister Joschka Fischer, troops were sent abroad (for peacekeeping operations in the Balkans) for the first time in, well, a very long time–a decision that led to Fischer being attacked by members of his own party. But the deployment demonstrated the party’s ability to change with the times and look ahead. During the summer’s Middle East flare-ups, Fischer was careful not to appear anti-Israel. When Schroeder generated attention worldwide for his stance on Iraq, Fischer was a bit more nuanced. Winning 8.6 percent of the vote was a major victory for the junior member of the coalition.
A lesser winner was the CDU/CSU, who gained seats from four years ago, thanks to a floundering economy and Schroeder having migrated too far to the left during the campaign. While many Germans are wary of going into Iraq, there was an equal fear that Schroeder, by saying he would rebuff a U.N. mandate allowing the use of force, was moving Germany dangerously toward its own brand of unilateralism.
Losers: “The FDP screwed up big time,” said Alex Privatera, Washington bureau chief of the German news channel N24. They took a less serious approach to the election (“We’re the fun party,” was a popular FDP motto), and in turn, voters didn’t take them very seriously. When FDP deputy leader Juergen Moellemann attacked Israel and criticized Jewish leader Michel Friedman, it cost the party votes. Their measly 47 seats, less than even the Greens, cost the CDU the election and the chancellery for Stoiber. Moellemann is expected to resign.
Edmund Stoiber is also a loser. Throughout the campaign, he was characterized as stodgy and boring–the conservative equivalent of Al Gore. He also didn’t fare too well in the first televised debates. And although his party gained seats, he didn’t help much by taking an aggressive approach to immigration and border disputes. He gave serious attention to the problem of displaced Germans from World War II in parts of Poland and toyed with the idea of compensation. Worse, he started flirting with another group who had grievances: the Sudetens. This was the last thing he and the CDU needed.
And the biggest loser of all was the PDS, the former Communist party. Getting under five percent of the vote, the PDS shouldn’t even be represented in the Bundestag. But by winning enough local districts, they were awarded two seats. Much of the PDS defeat is due to Schroeder’s leftward lurch, which lured away disaffected voters in the former East.
Yet in a strange way, Gerhard Schroeder and his party also emerged somewhat diminished. According to polls, the biggest concern of voters was the economy and an unemployment rate hovering near 10 percent. Schroeder vowed to get people back to work and failed. Regarding Iraq, there are many reasons for the German military not to actively take part–the main one being logistics. The German military isn’t exactly a giant anymore and German peacekeepers are already stationed in Kabul (and until this operation didn’t even own desert fatigues). German ships patrol the horn of Africa, even without badly needed air-conditioning on board (since their ships were meant for the Baltic). But Schroeder chose to make this an “us vs. them” issue, which has upset the White House and certain members of the European Union. Add to this the remarks of the Justice minister–and Schroeder’s soft reaction to them–and it becomes clear he risked marginalizing Germany in his effort to win the elections.
“The loss of seats by the SPD is a clear sign that the German electorate does not like the anti-American polemics we’ve heard from this government for too long,” said Gerhard Wahlers of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (which has strong ties to the CDU). “Even SPD voters thought that all of this went too far.” Schroeder is well aware of the current rift between the United States and Germany. Most observers expect that he will do some backtracking now by finding a way to support a U.N. resolution that authorizes the use of force in Iraq, and then trying to mend the transatlantic relationship.
The real benchmark will come a year from now. If Germany’s position in the war on terror proves too unpopular, or the economy continues to falter, or the Greens decide they’re just fed up, there is the possibility of a “constructive vote of no confidence.” Which would mean another election.
But would it mean another election party?
Victorino Matus is an assistant managing editor at The Weekly Standard.
