The Missouri governor’s race just got a little more competitive, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Election forecasters there shifted the race this week from “likely” to “lean Republican” after competitive internal polling results, a strong quarter of fundraising for Democrat Nicole Galloway, and the unpredictability of how suburban areas may turn out.
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Galloway, 38, is challenging Republican Gov. Mike Parson, who is seeking a full term after he inherited the office while lieutenant governor in 2018 from ex-Gov. Eric Greitens, who resigned amid a sex scandal.
Galloway, currently the state auditor, is the only Democrat and woman among six elected statewide officeholders in Jefferson City. She has held her position since 2015 and was previously treasurer for Boone County, which houses the University of Missouri.
Parson, 64, has been a known figure in Missouri politics for a long time. He served as the 12-year sheriff for the conservative Polk County, which President Trump won by almost a 57-point margin, and was later a member of the Missouri House of Representatives, followed by the state Senate.
The Cook report suggests Parson won’t have most of the traditional benefits an incumbent may have since he wasn’t elected to the position on his own.
Democrats have sought to use the governor’s experience in the state Legislature to try and find ways to discredit his political career on top of honing in on his response to the coronavirus pandemic.
Parson made national headlines over some of his comments related to the pandemic, when he controversially said children returning to schools in the fall would get COVID-19.
Parson took a number of steps to try and mitigate the pandemic’s impact while trying to deter economic ruin for the state amid excessive lockdown measures. The governor faced criticism for not issuing a statewide stay-at-home order earlier than April 3, when Parson announced it.
Galloway unveiled her own response plan to the pandemic, which includes a statewide mask mandate and investments in local health facilities.
The state has seen over 100,000 cases of COVID-19 and nearly 2,000 deaths.
Republicans have sought out ads against Galloway that paint her in the same vein of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, a message that likely could resonate negatively with more conservative Democrats.
Other ads target Galloway as being “soft on crime” and anti-police, though the Democrat has rejected calls to “defund” the police.
“The ‘law and order’ message is one they hope has particular resonance here given that Parson served for 12 years as the Sheriff of Polk County,” the report reads.
The report adds Galloway being from flagship college town Columbia will likely be to her advantage to get young voters to turn out for her, but she may have a difficult time running competitively in rural areas that largely went for Trump in 2016.
Missouri is again likely to favor Trump over Democratic nominee Joe Biden. The state, which was once considered a pivotal swing state in presidential politics, has been a largely reliable win for the GOP since 2004.
The report says the national landscape will most likely advantage Parson.
“The state’s fundamentals still favor a Republican in a presidential year, albeit even though no one expects Trump to take the 18.5 point win he got four years ago,” it reads. “Governors races are, of course, better opportunities for cross-over voters than federal Senate races, so this one increasingly merits watching.”
