Vacation is over for President Obama — both literally and politically. After more than a week of rest and relaxation at Martha’s Vineyard, the president will embark on arguably the most crucial stretch to date for his re-election prospects, hoping to convince voters he is capable of turning around an economy that has cost millions their jobs and homes.
Obama has vowed to roll out a new jobs plan after Labor Day, as he seeks to place his stamp on a deficit and jobs debate that will intensify on Capitol Hill and stretch well into the 2012 election season.
But if the debt-ceiling negotiations were any indication, Republicans are unlikely to cede ground to the White House on any proposal that would raise taxes or increase spending.
Obama failed to usher a “grand bargain” through a Republican-controlled House even though it would have slashed $4 trillion from the deficit because conservatives balked at his insistence on raising taxes.
And many analysts now wonder: If the GOP refused to give in to Obama — even with the threat of an unprecedented government default — why would they compromise even closer to the election?
“He’s running out of time,” said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic Policy and Research. “At the end of the day, he needs results. But I don’t know what he has left in his bag of tricks.”
The White House has not released any details of the proposals Obama might recommend to Congress. But the president has suggested publicly that he may revive earlier proposals for higher taxes on the wealthiest Americans, an extension of the payroll tax cut, an infrastructure bank to fund construction projects, patent reform and the approval of free-trade deals.
However, as Baker pointed out, those proposals would produce few jobs in the near term and Obama will likely need to make more tangible progress if voters now largely critical of his handling of the economy are to change their minds by Election Day.
Adding to the challenges Obama faces with the public is a new chorus of critics, the Republican presidential contenders, some of whom plan to unveil their own jobs programs around the same time as Obama.
Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman will announce his jobs blueprint on Wednesday and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will outline his plan right after Labor Day.
Even if his jobs package is derailed by congressional Republicans, it could play to Obama’s advantage simply to offer the proposal, some analysts said. The president could still make the case that he tried to address the nation’s biggest problems but was blocked by the opposition party.
“Even if Obama were polling at 60 percent, I don’t think he’d get moderate Republican support,” said Jeremy Mayer, a political scientist at George Mason University. “Instead, he’ll be able to implement the Truman ’48 strategy — blame a do-nothing Congress for their failure to act.”
It’s a strategy Obama has already taken out for a test-drive.
“[If Republicans] want to sit there and do nothing for the next 16 months, while unemployment is still high and small businesses are still suffering,” Obama said during a bus tour of the Midwest, “then ultimately they’re going to be held to account by you.”
