Joe Biden’s hostility to President Trump’s Middle East policies has regional allies nervous about major post-election shifts, creating uncertainty about whether Gulf powers will continue their rapprochement with Israel or seek support from American adversaries.
“If Biden wins, everyone in the region is going to brace for a temperature check,” an adviser to a Middle Eastern country said. “There is concern about the sudden yo-yo effect in U.S. policy, where each party and each administration seems to have this overarching need for radical departure from everything of their predecessors.”
That prospect is made explicit in the party platform presented at the Democratic National Convention, which features a pledge “to reset our relations with our Gulf partners” to elevate human rights issues and curtail U.S. support for “catastrophic proxy wars” against Iran. The platform promises a much more confrontational posture regarding “authoritarian impulses” of the Gulf monarchies.
“The United States has an interest in helping our partners contend with legitimate security threats … but we have no interest in continuing the blank-check era of the Trump Administration,” the platform says.
Gulf countries have a lot riding on the exact details of how a Biden team might turn those statements into new policies while beginning new talks with Iran.
“There’s concerns that commitments to regional security will change,” an adviser to a Gulf state said while considering the policy officials who could return to power if Biden defeats Trump in November. “It sort of depends on who Biden leans into.”
Such rebukes, combined with a conciliatory posture toward Tehran and the U.S. focus on China and the Indo-Pacific rather than the Middle East, raise the prospect that Gulf nations will find consolation with other countries.
Gulf countries will look to China or Russia, analysts say, especially if the bipartisan anger over Saudi Arabian human rights abuses results in a more confrontational relationship in a prospective Biden administration.
“The basic problem here does touch on great powers,” the American Enterprise Institute’s Michael Rubin said. “You recognize that if you plan tough love towards some of our Gulf allies, that you might simply force them into the embrace of China or Russia. And that would achieve neither a U.S. strategic interest, nor would it particularly advance democracy, liberalization, or respect for human rights.”
Saudi Arabia reportedly has partnered with China to develop some of the yellowcake resources necessary for a potential nuclear program. The U.S. is willing to provide nuclear industry assistance to Saudi Arabia and other allies if they can guarantee that they won’t pursue nuclear weapons, but Gulf allies hesitate to renounce such capabilities at a time when Iran can enrich nuclear material under the terms of the 2015 agreement.
“When you show up and you have a conversation … the answer that comes back is, ‘you know what, I think we’ll take the deal that you gave Iran,” outgoing State Department special envoy for Iran Brian Hook said at the Aspen Security Forum this month after dodging questions about the Saudi-Chinese yellowcake facility. “This is why we have to restore the standard [for Iran] of no enrichment.”
Israeli officials reportedly have flagged “worrying signs about what the Saudis might be doing” at the yellowcake facility, despite the recent growth in their partnership. The question marks underscore a dynamic that either Trump or Biden will have to grapple with: “Every time that the U.S. takes one step back, the Chinese take two steps forward,” as the Gulf country adviser said.
The alienation from the U.S. could redound to the benefit of Israeli-Arab ties, just as fear of the 2015 nuclear deal spurred more open cooperation between Israel and the Arab nations, including the normalization of diplomatic ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.
“Israel is becoming a more important part of the security infrastructure in the Middle East because it is rising as a power and because the U.S. is perceived to be withdrawing its military forces from the region,” an Israeli official said.
