The new map of Florida congressional districts enacted by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis is a titanic blow to the Democratic Party but also leaves some GOP incumbents vulnerable.
After decennial redistricting, just eight of Florida’s 28 House seats are hospitable to Democrats as drawn, while only two were designed to be competitive toss-ups. These boundaries, drawn by the state’s majority GOP legislature and signed into law by DeSantis, boosted seats inclined to elect Republicans by four — to 20 total, while eliminating by three the number of swing districts.
Within these significant changes are winners and losers on both sides of the aisle, although the Democratic Party writ large is clearly the biggest loser to emerge from the DeSantis gerrymander. And that reapportionment bludgeon wielded by the governor might have been felt the hardest by Democratic Rep. Al Lawson.
Lawson saw his north Florida 2nd Congressional District geographically and politically transformed from a deep blue D+21 seat to a ruby-red R+16. As a result, his most logical choice for reelection is the new 4th Congressional District, drawn as a near-impossible R+15. “Once again, DeSantis is showing Florida voters that he is governing the state as a dictator,” a clearly peeved Lawson said in a statement.
BIDEN ADMINISTRATION GETS SQUEEZED BY BOTH SIDES ON THE SOUTHERN BORDER
Among Democrats, Lawson would have more company if not for retirements. After considering a bid against Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, six-year incumbent Rep. Stephanie Murphy opted to call it quits rather than run for reelection in the new, R+14, 7th Congressional District. Rep. Charlie Crist, a former governor, also opted against reelection, concluding a run for his old job in Tallahassee was more attractive than trying to hang on in the new, R+12, Tampa Bay-area 13th Congressional District.
Meanwhile, even as Florida Republicans enjoyed a banner harvest with reapportionment collectively, some GOP incumbents could face tough reelection bids thank to redistricting, in part because the boundaries of their new seats could leave them vulnerable to primary challenges. Republicans on this list include Rep. John Rutherford and Rep. Daniel Webster.
Under the new map, Rutherford is moving from the 4th Congressional District to the 5th Congressional District. Except, as reported by Florida Politics, his new seat does not include some of his key strongholds of support in Jacksonville city and Nassau County. Similarly, changes to Webster’s central Florida 11th Congressional District — the loss of the northern portion of the old 11th district — could make the seat favorable to ambitious Republicans who might not shy away from challenging an incumbent.
Now, to the winners.
In the panhandle’s 1st Congressional District, Rep. Matt Gaetz, an acolyte of former President Donald Trump, saw the boundaries of his seat remain nearly as Republican-friendly as ever, moving from an R+40 to an R+38, a distinction without a political difference. In the newly configured 6th Congressional District, Republican Rep. Michael Waltz received more incumbent protection insurance along the central Atlantic coast, with his seat improving from R+22 to R+28. Ditto Tampa-area Republican Rep. Gus Bilirakis, whose newly configured 12th Congressional District improves from R+22 to R+34.
A couple of Democrats were similarly rewarded in redistricting.
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In Florida’s newly configured 9th Congressional District, Rep. Darren Soto is running for reelection in a D+9 Orlando-area seat. That has to be preferable to the D+4 seat he represents now, especially with the possibility of a Republican wave in the midterm elections.
Rep. Kathy Castor also gets some reinforcements in Tampa, with her newly configured 14th Congressional District clocking in at D+14, versus its current D+12.
