Rep. Elise Stefanik is warming to the idea of running for governor of New York but plans a patient process to consider the next steps in her political career, a period of decision-making that could last through early 2022.
The Republican from upstate New York, or the “north country,” raised $1.1 million during the first quarter and began April with a $2.5 million war chest. With a bipartisan voting record in Congress, the affection of grassroots conservatives supportive of former President Donald Trump, and a lucrative online fundraising operation, Republican insiders in New York are urging Stefanik to challenge embattled Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, believing she can end the GOP’s long statewide drought.
Though initially pleased by the attention and positive press, the 36-year-old congresswoman now appears legitimately intrigued and is giving a gubernatorial bid a hard look.
“Congresswoman Stefanik continues to receive encouragement from all corners of the state as she would immediately be the strongest Republican candidate in both a primary and general gubernatorial election,” her senior political adviser, Alex Degrasse, said in a statement. “She appreciates the widespread encouragement and is not ruling anything out — nor will she make her decision based on others’ timetables.”
That last line is undoubtedly a reference to fellow Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin, who jumped into the governor’s race earlier this month, as well as Andrew Giuliani.
Giuliani, the son of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who served in the Trump White House, recently told the Washington Examiner he planned to run. Giuliani, 35, does not have his father’s pedigree and would begin the race a legacy candidate. But Republican insiders in the state caution not to underestimate him. Ties to Trump and the press bonanza a potential Cuomo-Giuliani matchup would generate might be enough to carry him to the nomination.
The situation in New York is dynamic, and Stefanik is expected to see how matters shake out before making any decisions. At issue are Cuomo’s standing and decennial redistricting.
New York is a blue state, and the third-term governor was supposed to be a shoo-in for reelection. But facing allegations of sexual misconduct and cooking the books on his handling of the coronavirus, it’s unclear if the scandal-plagued Cuomo will be on the ballot in 2022. Meanwhile, New York is due to lose a House seat, and Stefanik’s hold on the 21st Congressional District could strengthen or weaken depending on what Democrats in Albany decide.
Stefanik is not interested in mounting a quixotic campaign for governor.
She intends to base her decision on viability and opportunities available in the House, where she has fought to elect more female Republicans and is often mentioned as a potential candidate for GOP leadership. Giving the congresswoman patience is fundraising prowess — she has a national network of grassroots contributors and boasts 85,000 donors who live in New York — and a steady media presence. Stefanik is a regular on conservative and other outlets.
In New York, there is a quirk to making the primary ballot as a gubernatorial candidate.
Next February, the New York GOP will hold a convention in which county chairmen and members of the state central committee will vote on their choice to be the party’s nominee for governor. If a candidate receives 50% of the vote, he or she becomes the GOP’s endorsed candidate; 25% of the vote earns access to the primary ballot; anything less than that, and a candidate must circulate petitions to gain a ballot line.
