Defense Secretary Ash Carter may be out of a job in January, but experts say his effort to increase innovation and partnerships at the Pentagon must continue on past his tenure, regardless of who wins the White House.
It may, however, look different from its current iteration as the Defense Innovation Unit Experimental, a project that Carter has been trying to grow over the past year.
Last week, Carter was in Cambridge, Mass., formally opening the second hub of DIUx, which began with a Silicon Valley outpost to build partnerships with technology companies there. The push for more innovation and collaboration with nontraditional partners has been a priority for Carter, with him elevating the program earlier this year to report directly to him.
“I can’t afford to have everybody do that, but this is to signify the importance I attach to this mission, and also the importance of speedy decision-making,” Carter said in May, when he announced the change.
Andrew Hunter, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that emphasis on innovation is likely to continue whether the next president is Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
“I do think for both current candidates there’s a lot of resonance with the idea that innovation is a priority and in particular access the best and brightest,” Hunter said.
While Hunter said what Trump would do if elected is “really a black box” that’s hard to predict, he also said that the businessman has made comments suggesting an emphasis on getting the U.S. government to tap into the best talent, which is consistent with more outreach to Silicon Valley. He also said that American innovation is a theme for Clinton’s campaign that would fit well with Carter’s push.
Clinton’s technology innovation fact sheet makes no specific mention of the DIUx hubs, but does talk about a plan to expand Carter’s “Hack the Pentagon” initiative, which allows hackers on the side of the government to find and disclose vulnerabilities, to other federal agencies.
Many have speculated that a Clinton administration would see Michele Flournoy, currently the CEO at the Center for New American Security, at the helm of the Pentagon. While Hunter said he has not seen Flournoy specifically endorse Carter’s plans, he said innovation has been a focus of several programs at CNAS, including a recent report that provided an update on Carter’s initiatives.
“I would imagine that the fact that that’s been such a focus of the think tank there seems to be suggestive of the idea that she also probably thinks that’s a priority,” he said.
Hunter also said that while Flournoy is a “very strong candidate” for a position in Clinton’s cabinet, it may not be as secretary of defense, which could leave an opening for Carter to keep his job.
Thomas Donnelly, a defense analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, said that while Carter’s specific DIUx program may not last past January, the next administration, regardless of party, will have no choice but to focus on innovation. Budget realities mean the Pentagon can’t procure and modernize everything they need, which sends officials looking for a solution.
“It’s driven by necessity, because we can’t buy enough of the stuff that’s currently available,” he said. “It might be a substantive solution, but it’s also a way of saying we’re aware of our problems and trying our best to do something about them, even though we don’t have any money.”
Another thing forcing the Pentagon to work with start ups is that much of the technology that’s really driving everything today and in the future is happening in Silicon Valley and other technology center garages, not at large, well-funded typical defense contractors, according to Kim Taipale, founder of the Stilwell Center.
If it’s not DIUx, what will the next administration’s technology push look like? While Trump’s plan is in the “realm of the unknowable,” Donnelly said the people Clinton names to Pentagon leadership would likely be interested in efforts that would yield more short-term, tangible results than Carter’s initiative.
A new defense secretary could also want to sever DIUx’s direct line to the top of the Pentagon. Taipale said a new secretary who may not be so tech- or reform-minded might be unwilling to take on the burden of someone else’s vision, especially since the program currently reports directly to Carter.
Hunter admitted that the continuation of the DIUx program is not a given, especially since the Senate is proposing to disestablish the Pentagon’s acquisition, technology and logistics office.
“If you can do that, probably nothing is sacred organizationally,” he said.
The proposed change proves that even established offices can be slashed if Congress doesn’t like where things are headed, especially since it’s up to them to accept the budget request, which asks for $45 million for DIUx in fiscal 2017. Still, he said he thinks its likely that DIUx will live on.
While Congress has been supportive of Carter, Hunter said that support may wane if DIUx does not start producing significant results.
“I think it is going to have to start to deliver. The first year there was a lot of listening, a lot of talking, but not a lot of contracts,” Hunter said. “It’s going to have to start generating more output to be embraced by Congress.”
Since May, the Silicon Valley branch of DIUx has begun work on 15 different projects, with more expected to be put under contract “in the coming weeks,” according to a Defense Department press release. The first contract, for a pair of headphones that use electricity to make the brain more adaptable to training, was awarded to Halo Neuroscience in just 31 days.
Taipale said success over the next six months is critical to continued buy in to this specific format from both a new administration and from Congress.
“Some level of visible success from the recent restructuring will go a long way towards insuring that the DIUx program continues in its current form with a new administration,” he said.
The program has already faced some push back from lawmakers. Earlier this year, the House Armed Services Emerging Threats and Capabilities Subcommittee released a draft of its piece of the fiscal 2017 National Defense Authorization Act, which included a provision that would withhold 20 percent of the funds for DIUx until Carter provided a blueprint for the new agency.
Another thing that could hurt the program’s future is if traditional defense companies, some of which see it as a disadvantage for them if start ups are receiving what they perceive as special treatment, begin to lobby their representatives in Congress, Hunter said.
“Obviously, Congress, they hear from everybody, they’re probably hearing that point of view too. If output doesn’t grow, then those wishes will get louder and be heard more,” he said.
