EXCLUSIVE — An internal poll found Republican gubernatorial nominee Glenn Youngkin ahead of Democratic former Gov. Terry McAuliffe by 4 percentage points, signaling significant gains in a competitive race for Virginia governor.
The Republican Winsome Sears for Lieutenant Governor Campaign poll conducted by co/efficient, provided exclusively to the Washington Examiner, found Youngkin with 47% support among likely voters and McAuliffe with 43%. Third-party candidate Princess Blanding had 5% support, and another 5% were undecided.
The poll was conducted from Oct. 20-21 through mobile text response and automated landline interviews among 785 likely general election voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%.
McAuliffe is seeking a second nonconsecutive gubernatorial term, and Youngkin is a first-time candidate and former co-CEO of the Carlyle Group private equity firm.
‘GREAT MODEL’: REPUBLICANS SEE EDUCATION ISSUE AS WINNER, NO MATTER OUTCOME IN VIRGINIA
There is good news for Republicans all the way down the ticket.
In the lieutenant governor race, the poll finds Sears leading Democratic Delegate Hala Ayala 47% to 46%. In the attorney general race, Republican Jason Miyares leads Democratic incumbent Mark Herring 46% to 45%.
A generic state House of Delegates ballot found that 48% chose Republican and 46% chose Democratic.
The poll result signals Youngkin making significant gains in the final weeks of the off-year gubernatorial race, often used as a barometer for the current president and the midterm elections. Because Republicans have not won a statewide office in Virginia since 2009 and President Joe Biden won Virginia by 10 points, a Republican win next week would put Democrats in hot water.
“Obviously there’s a number of groundswell issues that are shifting the landscape right now,” Ryan Munce, president of co/efficient, told the Washington Examiner. “We’re seeing Democrats identifying as independents, and we’re seeing independents identifying as Republicans with a significant shift really over the last six months.”
Education has been central to the Republican campaign in Virginia, including school closures, vaccine mandates, mask mandates, transgender issues, and “critical race theory.”
Biden’s approval rating among Virginia voters in the poll is almost a mirror reversal of his 2020 election result, with a net disapproval rating of 9% (43% approve, 52% disapprove). McAuliffe has acknowledged Biden’s unpopularity in Virginia has created headwinds for his campaign, but Biden came to campaign for McAuliffe on Tuesday evening.
Its Oct. 20-21 polling dates, though, measure the electorate’s mood from a week ago. Election Day is on Tuesday.
“Races, of course, have a tendency to tighten,” Munce said. “I expect that to also be the case here. But I do think that the real opinion and the real kind of energy on the ground did flip, you know, a week or two ago.”
An average of recent polls compiled by RealClearPolitics, which does not include the most recent poll, puts McAuliffe at just 0.8% ahead of Youngkin. Some recent polls, including from Monmouth University and Emerson College, have McAuliffe and Youngkin in a dead heat.
Previous polls conducted by co/efficient found McAullife with a 5-point lead in June and a 2-point lead in August.
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Full poll results and cross tabulations are below:
