Donald Trump looks to be cruising to a solid victory in the South Carolina primary, but there is evidence that his debate performance might have hurt him—at least on the margins. Seven pollsters* have conducted surveys that were in the field mostly after the debate, and the average result is:
Trump: 33
Cruz: 18
Rubio: 17
Kasich: 10
Bush: 10
Carson: 7
Compare that to the five polls that were conducted after the New Hampshire primary, but mostly before the debate:
Trump: 38
Cruz: 19
Rubio: 15
Bush: 9
Kasich: 9
Carson: 5
That’s a drop of five points for Trump, which corresponds to this observation from CNN regarding its poll (conducted 2/3rds before the debate and 1/3rd after):
Even though this was a very small sample, a shift of 9 percent was still outside the margin of error in the CNN poll. And indeed, these other polls suggest a similar result. Trump’s numbers have fallen since the debate.
It is worth noting as well that Trump is more or less back to where he has been in the RealClearPolitics average of the South Carolina polls for months. In August, Trump broke out to a commanding lead, garnering anywhere between 32 and 35 percent, until Ben Carson began his rise in late October. Carson seemed to poach some Trump voters, but only temporarily. As Carson faded, Cruz and Trump looked to have been the main beneficiaries, and Trump ultimately returned a position in the low-to-mid 30s. That is where he is today.
Trump’s numbers appear to be flat because his unfavorable ratings are very high. Across the post-debate polls, his net favorable rating (favorable minus unfavorable):
Bloomberg: +12
Monmouth: +9
PPP: +7
Emerson College: -6
AVERAGE: +5.5
The Fox News poll did not include a question on favorability, but it did find that 39 percent of Republicans would never consider voting for Trump, nearly double the result of the next closest candidate (Jeb Bush at 21 percent). These are not good numbers for a candidate in a primary competition—remember, these are net favorable numbers among Republicans. Meanwhile, Ted Cruz’s favorable ratings appear to have dropped, while Rubio’s remain very high.
(*-These averages exclude the results from the South Carolina House Republican Caucus, which has been releasing poll data since the weekend. However, they do not provide sufficient detail on their sampling, collection, or weighting methodologies, nor do they explain who is actually conducting the survey. Including their numbers in this average would not alter the post-debate averages, and reduce Trump’s pre-debate number from 38 to 37 (after rounding). Given the decent number of known pollsters in the field this week, I thought it best to prudent to exclude it.)
Jay Cost is a staff writer at The Weekly Standard and the author of A Republic No More: Big Government and the Rise of American Political Corruption.
