House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy says Republicans will win back the majority from the Democrats this fall, though over 60 years of congressional election cycles suggest otherwise.
“If we want to take a fact that someone has lost the majority, we won it back in four years the last time we lost the majority,” McCarthy told the Washington Examiner, referring to House Republicans sweeping 2010 midterm win that retook the majority from Democrats after four years.
Nevertheless, according to FiveThirtyEight, Republicans face an uphill electoral battle from unfavorable polling and more open seats to protect, mostly due to Republican retirements. The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate 222 districts as likely, leaning, or safely Democratic while rating 193 as likely, leaning, or safely Republican. The remaining 20 districts are considered toss-ups.
With 218 seats needed for a majority when the House is full, that hardly bodes well for a flip to the GOP when the 117th Congress convenes in January 2021.
McCarthy argued the Democratic majority damaged itself by not accomplishing anything since taking the House and launched baseless investigations against President Trump, all of which will benefit Republicans.
“I think majorities are won and are not given, and I’m not sure why the American people will give the Democrats another majority if they lied to them and didn’t follow out and carry what they promised,” said the California Republican.
“And what did they even achieve? Name me one problem they have solved since they have become a majority,” McCarthy said.
House Republicans lost their majority in 2018 after eight years of holding the gavel in the chamber. Democrats held the House majority for four years before that after the 2006 elections. Republicans held the House for 12 years prior after winning the majority from the Democrats, who held power for 40 years, until the 1994 Republican revolution.
However, the House majority has not changed party hands twice in a row since 1954, and a party majority change has not happened during a presidential election cycle since 1952.
McCarthy, along with House Republicans, touted the recent wins the party had in North Carolina’s 9th District special election and California’s 25th District special election as a positive indicator for the future of other House Republican candidates across the country.
“If you want to go with historical facts, I’ll give you many historical facts. I give you historical facts, but about a special election [that] each time prior was an early indication, May of 2010, a special election in Hawaii,” McCarthy said. “People didn’t think they had chance to win a Republican one. Short time later, 63 Democrats lost the majority. Same thing happened in 2018. A Republican seat in Pennsylvania went to Democrat Conor Lamb. Lo and behold, they won the majority. So, yes, I think [California] 25 is an indicator of the election coming forward.”
