Ukraine faces a “very high” risk that Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons, officials say, as Moscow scrambles to reverse recent battlefield losses.
A recent Ukrainian counteroffensive recovered large swaths of territory in eastern Ukraine, forcing Russian President Vladimir Putin to order a “partial mobilization” to find more troops to throw into the fight. That decision is an apparent acknowledgment of a manpower problem that might make the use of nuclear weapons more attractive in the Kremlin.
“They will likely target places along the front lines with lots of [army] personnel and equipment, key command centers, and critical infrastructure,” Ukrainian deputy intelligence chief Vadym Skibitsky told the Guardian. “In order to stop them, we need not just more anti-aircraft systems, but anti-rocket systems. But everything will depend on how the situation develops on the battlefield.”
The latest Ukrainian assessment lends some credence to the Western anxiety that Ukrainian success could result in making a desperate effort to salvage victory out of a defeat, although Ukrainian officials have signaled to their allies that they won’t be daunted by a nuclear strike.
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“They will not stop fighting, anyway. That’s what they are [saying] to us,” a senior European official told the Washington Examiner, adding that the Ukrainians have hinted they would respond to a nuclear strike by increasing their operations against Russian territory. “This will not stop them, and then they will spread the fighting, also. At the moment, they are rather conservative [about] hitting targets on Russian soil.
Such a decision to take the war to more Russian territory would represent a significant watershed for Kyiv, as Ukrainian operations in Russia have focused largely on Russian supply depots near the current war zone. The Ukrainian theory of the case, according to this official, is that Russia does not have the conventional forces available to defend those other regions, and thus, a counteroffensive would punish Putin’s use of nuclear weapons in a way that might not leave him good options to respond.
“There are not significant fortification lines on [Russia’s] own soil because they have calculated that the Ukrainians are not intruding there,” the senior European official said. “So if Russia thinks that they [can] start to use tactical nukes against Ukrainians, and Ukrainians are spreading the fight into Russian soil.”
Part of the fear stems from the widespread perception that Russia has adopted a doctrine known as “escalate to de-escalate” — to wit, that they could use relatively small nuclear weapons to destroy an opposing force and thus win a war. In the face of such an assault, a conventional counterattack elsewhere in Russia might almost seem like a way to shelter Ukrainian forces from a Russian nuclear strike.
“It’s much, much more difficult to use nukes on your own soil,” the senior European official said. “Escalate to deescalate is meant [for] when they are conquering something, not defending.”
Polish President Andrzej Duda rather downplayed the risk of a nuclear strike last week by emphasizing “all the taboos” against the use of nuclear weapons — which, he noted, would require not only Putin’s authorization but also support from “the inner circle of Vladimir Putin, also those who make decisions in Russia.” Yet Polish officials warn also that NATO should be prepared to retaliate, even though Ukraine is not a member of the trans-Atlantic alliance, in order to enforce the norm against the use of nuclear weapons in war.
“NATO should respond decisively and firmly,” Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau told NBC on Sunday. “To the best of our knowledge, Putin is threatening to use tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil, not to attack NATO … which means that NATO should respond in a conventional way. But the response should be devastating. And I suppose this is the clear message that the NATO alliance is sending to Russia right now.”
U.S. and allied leaders are anxious to prevent nuclear-armed states such as Russia or China from drawing the conclusion that they can launch wars of aggression against neighbors that do not possess nuclear weapons. Ukrainian officials are emphasizing that prospect in order to shore up international support in the face of such an attack.
“Of course, Ukraine takes it seriously, because we understand what kind of state we are dealing with,” Mykhailo Podolyak, one of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s top advisers, told the Associated Press. “If nuclear weapons are used now, in the XXI century, we will not close this Pandora’s box again. Because there are many unstable political regimes that will take advantage of this situation and start speculating on nuclear weapons and try to use them in one form or another, as they will think that this is permissible.”
President Joe Biden’s administration has warned that Russia would face “catastrophic” consequences for using such weapons, although it has not detailed a possible response in public.
“We have spoken very clearly of the implications for Russia were that to happen,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said Wednesday. “The point that we have made both publicly and privately to the Russians is that the consequences would be real, and they would be extraordinary.”
Ukraine’s refusal to be deterred by the threat of a Russian nuclear attack reflects, according to the senior European official, the outrage provoked by the atrocities carried out in Russian-occupied territory and the destruction of Mariupol, which was once a major Ukrainian port on the Black Sea. A protracted battle to take over the city left “over 100,000 people” dead, Mariupol’s mayor has claimed, although the estimates have not been confirmed.
That figure is comparable to the death toll when the United States used nuclear weapons against Hiroshima and Nagasaki in the closing days of World War II. The fatality estimates for those two strikes range from 110,000 to 210,000 combined, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
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“Ukraine is not afraid of winning against Russia, as well. We in the West, we are afraid of that — of what can happen if they will use nukes,” the senior European official said. “If you are killing, with conventional means, 100,000 [people], Ukrainians can’t understand what more horrible [thing] can happen, actually. … If you use one tactical nuke, it will not demolish a city the size of Mariupol, actually.”
