A new poll from a Democratic super PAC suggests that President Trump’s support among Republican voters is sliding, even among his uncommonly loyal following.
Trump’s support among “Trump voters” dropped 10 percentage points over the course of March, according to national tracking data compiled for Priorities USA by Democratic pollsters Garin Hart Yang Research Group and Global Strategy Group. Still, the president’s approval with this cohort was 82 percent.
Just 49 percent of “Trump voters” told the Democratic pollsters that they were “more favorable” toward the president “as a result of what they have heard about him recently.” That’s a huge drop from the 80 percent who answered that way in early March.
“The results among non-college educate white voters, Trump’s base, are of special note,” read the polling memo prepared for Priorities USA. “In the prior poll, they said recent events had made them more favorable rather than less favorable to Trump by 53 percent to 31 percent. Now, only 30 percent say they are more favorable to Trump as result of what they have heard lately, while 37 percent say recent events have made them less favorable.”
Republican pollsters don’t dispute that Trump is unpopular nationally. But they tend to question the significance of his national approval ratings.
Republican strategists say the president’s national numbers are being driven by his unusually low marks in Democratic states, and that he remains in good shape with Republican voters in GOP states and House districts.
Still, if new Democratic polling suggesting erosion among Trump voters is accurate, Republicans could be in trouble, beginning with elections being held this year. That includes a hotly contested special election to fill Georgia’s suburban Atlanta 6th district on April 18, and the race for governor of Virginia in November.
The Priorities USA survey polled 1,001 voters nationally in early and late March, as the debate over Republican legislation to repeal and replace Obamacare was playing out. The margin of error was 3.2 percentage points. The health care bill, the American Health Care Act, had to be shelved after congressional Republicans and Trump failed to reach consensus on the package.
Among the poll’s findings:
- Just 39 percent of voters approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president, while 47 percent disapprove and the remainder are uncertain. There is significant intensity to the disapproval of Trump: 42 percent strongly disapprove of his performance, while just 26 percent strongly approve of it. Trump’s approval has dropped by 6 points since the previous Priorities USA national tracking survey, conducted March 3-7, as a result of declining approval among Trump’s own supporters.
- Trump’s approval rating with independent voters stands at just 32 percent, down from 41 percent three weeks ago. While disapproval for his performance has risen among Democrats (from 79 percent to 85 percent), his approval among Republicans has dropped over the same period (from 86 percent to 76 percent.)
- When respondents are asked to volunteer any unfavorable things they recall seeing or hearing about Donald Trump, healthcare emerges as the leading top-of-mind response (25 percent), followed by immigration and the travel ban (12 percent) and his use of Twitter (9 percent.)
- When asked more specifically their reaction to what they have heard recently about Donald Trump’s healthcare policies, 51 percent report an unfavorable reaction, compared to just 24 percent who report a favorable reaction. This is significantly more negative than the result from three weeks ago, when reactions to Trump’s health care policies were 32 percent favorable and 36 percent unfavorable.
- Independent voters are unfavorable to his healthcare policies by 50 percent to 13 percent.
