Increases in states’ minimum wage that begin this month will cost 383,000 jobs by 2020, according to a new analysis from a right-of-center research organization.
The American Action Forum, a Washington think tank, on Thursday will release an analysis of the minimum wage increases taking place in 14 states and the District of Columbia in 2017.
The new wage floors include steps on the way to $15-an-hour minimum wages in California and New York, which are projected to lose out on 65,000 and 109,000 jobs, respectively, the two biggest losses. Vermont, which is upping its minimum wage from $9.60 an hour to $10 this year, is anticipated to lose 1,000 jobs as a result.
The results are just for the increases taking place in 2017, not the subsequent increases scheduled for future years.
The estimates are based on one minimum wage study, published in 2013 by economists now at Texas A&M and the University of California at Santa Cruz, that examined the relationship between minimum wage increases and future job growth. The job loss numbers come from applying that study’s results to projections of state job growth from state agencies.
That is only one study among many on the effects of minimum wage increases, some of which find little or no job effects. A 2014 analysis from the Congressional Budget Office concluded that raising the federal minimum wage, currently $7.25, likely would cause significant job losses.
Former President Barack Obama backed state and local minimum wage increases across the country, and his economic advisers maintained that hikes would not cost jobs. President Trump has not advocated changing federal or local minimum wages since coming into office, and congressional Republicans are generally opposed.
