A longtime Republican-held seat that could decide who holds a Senate majority after the November election currently tilts towards the GOP, according to a new poll.
Voters in Kansas currently favor the Republican nominee, Rep. Roger Marshall, over Democrat Barbara Bollier by two points, with 46% and 44% support respectively. Despite that slim lead, Marshall is currently underperforming President Trump, whom 48% of voters in the state plan on voting for compared to 41% saying the same for Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee.
The survey was commissioned by a cadre of online political enthusiasts known as “Election Twitter,” who crowdfunded the poll after complaining about unreliable polling of the state. The margin of error of the poll is +/- 3.3% after interviewing 1,675 adults from Aug. 8 through Aug. 9.
“Young voters hold the key to whether Kansas elects a Republican to fill the seat being vacated by fixture Pat Roberts, who is not seeking re-election after 24 years, or sends a Democrat to Washington DC for the first time in 88 years,” the pollsters wrote. “Marshall’s fate is inexorably tied to top-of-ticket Republican Donald Trump, whose rising tide would float many red boats, if that tide comes in, but whose current sustained ebb tide is giving Democrats up and down the ballot hope not just in The Sunflower State, but throughout the heartland.”
A member of Election Twitter who first shared the poll on Twitter did not respond to a request for comment.
Marshall was considered the safest GOP candidate running in the primary, which was held on Aug. 4. Kris Kobach, Marshall’s biggest opponent and the former Kansas secretary of state who lost his 2018 run for governor against Democrat Laura Kelly, lost the primary by nearly 15 points, earning 26.1% of the vote.
Democrats need to win three to four Senate races in November to retain a 51-seat majority in the chamber. The Kansas race has generally not been part of their majority calculations, but in an uncertain political environment due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing recession, it’s become a target of opportunity.
