Russia’s new prime minister, Viktor Zubkov.
“Lenin skazal nado delitsya,” was a favorite saying that mothers would tell young children during Soviet times. “Lenin said we must divide amongst one another,” was what the phrase meant–the use of the verb delitsya–attempting to inculcate youth with the values of sharing and a collective mentality. This verb has definite negative connotations when used in reference to the political arena in Russia. It usually occurs in conversations related to the theories about which personalities in the cabal around President Vladimir Putinchet will receive what positions–how the political power will be divvyed up after March 2008 when the former secret policeman is supposed to leave office. The main question as to who would be his successor became a bit clearer today when Putin dissolved the entire government. According to the Russian constitution, the president has two weeks to name a new PM and form a new government. Paradoxically, this move now takes place more than a month before–rather than after–the Russian parliamentary elections, proving once again that the election results and the nation’s legislative branch are both irrelevant in determining national policy. Putin was widely expected to name his long-time KGB associate, First Deputy PM Sergei Ivanov, as the next prime minister, which would have officially positioned Ivanov as the man who will take over as president next year. Ivanov’s accession had been widely anticipated. His only other real competitor has been Dmitri Medvedev–who is also the only other first deputy prime minister and a former head of the Presidential Administration–but Ivanov’s appearances at public events, on television, and at Putin’s side have eclipsed that of his supposed rival. One of the recent high-profile public appearances of Ivanov and Putin took place at last month’s Moscow Air Show (MAKS) during the opening of the exposition. The two were side-by-side in the sweltering heat on one of the hottest days of the year in Moscow as Ivanov gave the president a guided tour of the exhibit–stopping at the stands of some of the more important aerospace and defense enterprises. None of which is a major surprise. Ivanov has made his stewardship of the defense industrial sector the theme of many of his televised, staged public events. All the while he has tried to convey to the Russian public that an upsurge in the activity of the defense sector–more sales abroad, more new weapons, more funding for military procurement–is the locomotive of technology that will pull Russia out ahead of the rest of the world and into a space-age future.
A week ago the die appeared to be cast as Federal Industry Agency minister Boris Alyoshin was preparing to leave his government post to take up the directorship of AvtoVaz, the nation’s leading automobile maker. AvtoVaz had previously been taken over by Rosoboronexport, the Russia state arms export monopoly–an organization with which Alyoshin had considerable experience. In his position he controlled Russia’s defense industry and made most of the major decisions as to which enterprises would be privatized and how/to whom. His departure from his government position seemed to signal that Ivanov was about to become the next prime minister and would want his own man in the job of managing the defense industry. So, it was surprising to some to see Putin today–only a few hours after dissolving the Russian government–named Viktor Zubkov, a 65-year-old long-time Putin associate, as the new prime minister. Zubkov has no political profile, but is close to other high-level Putin associates and his son-in-law, Anatoliy Serdyukov, is the recently appointed minister of Defense. But, it is not much of a surprise to those who have been in the business of following what goes on in Moscow for the past 25 years or more. Whether in government or other major organizations, the man at the top in Russia is always loathe to anoint his heir-apparent until the last moment. “The prince still has not been named,” is a phrase heard more often than not over the years when it came to who would be the next deputy minister, the next deputy director, the next first deputy general designer in some Russian organization. Putin is–like any good dictator–keeping his principle deputies off-balance until the last possible moment and making sure that no one feels more favored than another. One of the Russian commentators who probably understands Putin’s mentality more than others is Yevgenniy Kiselyov. A Russian political analyst who rose to fame as the one-time head of Russia’s (at the time) Independent Television (NTV) network, Kiselyov’s words now appear mostly in print since the takeover of all of all television broadcasting by the Kremlin. However, before his career as a political pundit Kiselyov was the Farsi language instructor at the KGB, and as such quite familiar with the forces that motivate the current Russian president. “No Russian leader has yet to manage the trick pulled by Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, who continued to wield considerable power after leaving office,” he wrote today. “Putin himself has hinted that he intends to do so as well, and him trying to pull it off might be the most interesting show of all.” And a show it intends to be with Russian parliamentary elections a little more than two months away and a presidential election only about six months away. However, with America obsessed with its own increasingly absurd presidential primaries and the even more absurd name-calling directed against America’s top general in Iraq there are few in the U.S. who may be watching.
