Consumer confidence fell in October as outlook for jobs recovery worsens

Consumer confidence decreased in October, the Conference Board announced on Tuesday, as households saw the jobs recovery from the pandemic slowing.

“There is little to suggest that consumers foresee the economy gaining momentum in the final months of 2020, especially with COVID-19 cases on the rise and unemployment still high,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board.

The index now stands at 100.9, down from September’s 101.8. The consumer confidence numbers are indexed to 1985, and a number at 100 or above signals that confidence is strong. Tuesday’s report shows that confidence is still in the positive territory but weakening.

“Expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in the short-term outlook for jobs,” Franco said.

Franco’s assessment is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions. The proportion of consumers expecting fewer job openings in the months ahead increased more than 4% on the month. Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead barely budged over the same time period, increasing just 0.3%.

Fewer firms are looking to add new workers in the fourth quarter, according to polling released on Monday by the National Association for Business Economics, making it harder for the economy to regain the millions of jobs lost in the pandemic.

The economy is over seven months into the pandemic, and layoffs are still widespread, as gauged by jobless claims remaining at historic levels. Over 780,000 workers claimed unemployment benefits for the week ending Oct. 17, about four times the pre-pandemic level.

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