Former White House climate adviser George David Banks said President Trump could be poised to reverse his decision to exit the Paris climate change accord.
“There’s nothing in it for the president this year,” Banks told E&E News in an interview after he stepped down last week. “There’s nothing in it for the president next year.” But in 2020, Trump is “going to want victories” to win re-election, he said.
The U.S. cannot formally exit from the Paris agreement until the 2020 presidential election year under the United Nations’ rules for withdrawal. Trump often has said that there might be a way to renegotiate the U.S.’s terms of the agreement. But others such as French President Emmanuel Macron have said that would impossible to do unless the U.S. was intent on increasing its commitments under the agreement.
Banks pointed out that the U.S. will be hosting the Group of Seven industrialized nations, or G7, in 2020, which the president could use as a foil to renegotiate the Paris deal.
“You get to control the agenda, you get to control all the conversation,” Banks said. “The president theoretically could walk out of the meeting with heads of state and say that he had renegotiated the Paris Agreement.”
Banks also discussed what a renegotiated Paris deal could entail, saying Congress would need to be involved. “I don’t think that U.S. participation in the Paris Agreement can ever be effective without congressional support,” Banks said.
He said the U.S. delegation is committed to approving a new set of rules being developed later this year that would even the playing field among countries for curbing greenhouse gas emissions.
One of the reasons Trump decided to leave the agreement was what he argued to be the unfair advantages under the deal given to China and other countries to begin phasing out emissions later than the United States.
“You’re trying to correct the flaws of the framework convention, which gives China a competitive advantage,” Banks said. “So regardless of U.S. participation in the Paris Agreement, it’s in our interest to negotiate a Paris Agreement rulebook that creates a more level playing field.”
Banks had planned to stay at the White House until a U.N. climate change meeting later this year in Poland. But that was before he found out that his past marijuana use would prevent him from receiving the necessary security clearance to stay on at the White House. He stepped down last week.