The worst of the area?s residential real estate downturn is behind the Baltimore region, but data show a real turnaround could be two years away, a top analyst told real estate agents Wednesday.
“The broader economy is out of intensive care but still in serious condition,” Gregory Leisch, chief executive officer of real estate consultants Delta Associates, said at the second annual MRIS Housing Trends Forecast Luncheon in Columbia.
Based on data collected by Realtor-owned Metropolitan Regional Information Systems Inc., Leisch said Baltimore City home prices outperformed Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Harford and Howard counties in both good times and bad ? gaining more in 2005 and 2006 and losing less as the residential market tumbled last year.
Leisch said he expects prices in the city to stabilize by early next year, but prices in the northern suburbs might not gain traction until 2010, and the southern suburbs until 2011.
Local inventory of listed homes for sale leveled off with a backlog of 10 months in March, Leisch said, twice as much as the five and half months of inventory available in March 2007.
“It appears the ramp up in supply is behind us and we need to work off that supply,” Leisch said.
Listings in March rose to 17,000 from 5,000 in 2005, while building permits in that period fell to 5,000 from 10,000, according to MRIS data.
“It?s been my experience that periods of expansion are followed by periods of indigestion,” said David Charron, MRIS president and CEO. “The question everyone asks when times are good is how long will it last, and when times are not so good, everyone asks, how long will it last.”
Talk at the forum also centered on BRAC, as well as the boom in growth and housing Realtors hope it will bring to the Baltimore area.
Howard County Economic Development Authority CEO Richard Story said Howard, already a desirable area, might see one of the biggest housing price benefits as thousands of new Ft. Meade jobs run up against the area?s normal annual job growth and an annual cap of 1,850 on new home starts.
Story said he expects the first BRAC transplants to start looking seriously for homes late this year or early next year.
“There is going to be significant competition for a limited number of homes,” he said.
To view a full version of the MRIS Trends in Housing First Quarter Report or to download a copy, go to MRIS or Delta Associates.
