Do Drones Work?

The New York Times, which discussed the Taliban’s military strategy with a “logistics tactician” for the group “over six months of interviews,” gets a quote describing U.S. drone strikes as extremely effective:

The one thing that impressed him were the missile strikes by drones – virtually the only American military presence felt inside Pakistan. “The drones are very effective,” he said, acknowledging that they had thinned the top leadership of Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the area. He said 29 of his friends had been killed in the strikes. The drone attacks simply prompted Taliban fighters to spend more time in Afghanistan, or to move deeper into Pakistan, straddling both theaters of a widening conflict. The recruits were prepared to fight where they were needed, in either country, he said.

But David Kilcullen, former adviser to General Petraeus, recently offered this assessment in testimony to Congress:

“I realize that they do damage to the Al Qaeda leadership,” he told the House Armed Services Committee. But that, he said, was not enough to justify the program. “Since 2006, we’ve killed 14 senior Al Qaeda leaders using drone strikes; in the same time period, we’ve killed 700 Pakistani civilians in the same area. The drone strikes are highly unpopular. They are deeply aggravating to the population. And they’ve given rise to a feeling of anger that coalesces the population around the extremists and leads to spikes of extremism. … The current path that we are on is leading us to loss of Pakistani government control over its own population.” Another problem, Kilcullen says, is that “using robots from the air … looks both cowardly and weak.”

So which is it? Crowley says our young Taliban strategist might be feeding the Times propaganda — that the attacks are backfiring and he wants them to continue. An expert I spoke with says Kilcullen “doesn’t get Pakistan,” and disputes both that these strikes have killed 14 “senior” leaders (he says they were mostly mid-level operatives) and that there have been 700 civilians killed. “Whatever happened to not distinguishing between terrorists and those that harbor them,” he said. So regardless of whether or not the number is as high as 700, why should the people housing and harboring terrorists be considered civilians by the United States military? One last question: When New York Times reporters Jane Perlez and Pir Zubair Shah were done with their source, did they tell the U.S. military where they might find him for a more thorough interview, or do journalistic ethics only allow reporters to aid and abet the enemy?

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