Trimming millions from the cost of the Dulles rail project could prove a risky operation for Virginia and Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority officials, with any change that cuts ridership likely to prompt a stern re-evaluation from the Federal Transit Administration.
The FTA on Monday released a report challenging the official $2.65 billion project cost estimate for the first 11.6-mile phase of the Metrorail extension, saying the track would be substantially more expensive.
While officials knew they would need to shave costs from an already pricey transit venture to qualify for $900 million in federal funds, the new $2.83 billion price tag estimated by the FTA leaves them with an even greater challenge.
The FTA will judge whether the track should get federal dollars based, in part, on whether it serves enough people to justify its cost.
The amount project officials will need to cut is estimated to be at least $250 million. That figure could grow, however, if the FTA deems those cuts will reduce the projected number of riders — thereby changing the cost-per-rider ratio. Paradoxically, the ratio may have to be brought back into balance by further cost reductions.
“Whatever they cut out, depending on what it is, could directly impact the benefits promised by the project to the riding public,” FTA spokesman Wes Irvin said. “And if those things are taken out, we and the other stakeholders would need to approve them, and also it could force us to recalculate the user benefit.”
Virginia and MWAA officials have pledged to trim the project or seek other ways to pay for some features. They are seeking, for example, to fund improvements to Route 7 and the Wiehle Avenue station parking garage without federal monies.
“We won’t do anything without making sure that there are no unintended consequences to the user benefit,” Virginia Transportation Secretary Pierce Homer said.
