The first week of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attempt to overthrow the Ukrainian government has not gone particularly well, according to experts, who say it raises concerns about what he will do next.
With the Ukrainian resistance holding firm through the first week, Russian forces have already started to escalate their tactics, which includes the targeting of civilian infrastructures.
“I don’t see any obvious off-ramp” for Putin “short of escalation,” Jeffrey Cimmino, an associate director of the Scowcroft Strategy Initiative at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security within the Atlantic Council told the Washington Examiner on Wednesday. “This conflict is likely to continue getting worse before it gets better.”
BIDEN CONDEMNS PUTIN AND SWIPES AT TRUMP IN STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
The American Enterprise Institute’s Giselle Donnelly agreed with his conclusion, arguing that the Russian president has “already crossed” the “threshold” for going scorched-earth on Ukraine.
Putin’s goal was a “rapid decapitating strike on Kyiv,” the capital of Ukraine, Cimmino added, noting, “Short of that, I think it’s hard for him to not lose face. So, I at this point in the kind of immediate near term, I see him continuing to escalate.”
The Russian troops specifically aiming to gain control of Kyiv have been “stalled” as they face more resistance than they anticipated, according to a senior defense official. Not only have they had less success than expected, but the troops are also experiencing shortages of fuel and food for troops, many of whom are conscripts who have “never been in combat” and “weren’t even told they were going to be in combat.”
The convoy of Russian troops heading for Ukraine was roughly 15 miles from Kyiv, the official told reporters Monday, and said that little had changed in that regard on Tuesday and Wednesday.
“I think [Putin] underestimated and miscalculated the extent of unity within the NATO-allied response,” Cimmino said, and he “underestimated the resistance in Ukraine,” which “backed him into a corner at this point,” saying that it could become an “unwinnable war.”
Russian forces have reportedly used cluster munitions, which are bombs that release smaller bombs when they hit the ground and explode, and while a thermobaric rocket launcher was transported through Ukraine. Such rockets are filled with fuel and chemicals that suck all the oxygen out of the area, including a person’s body.
Cimmino, in a recent piece published on the Atlantic Council’s website, wrote about four possible outcomes: Ukraine being able to thwart the invasion and end the war, Ukraine’s government falling in the near future with locals putting up a strong resistance that would likely last a long time, what would happen if Ukraine and its resistance fell quickly, and lastly, what would happen if NATO got involved.
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President Joe Biden has repeatedly said U.S. troops will not engage directly with Russian forces, though he has also repeatedly reaffirmed his commitment to honor NATO’s Article 5 clause, which says that if any NATO member gets attacked, it should be considered “an attack against them all.”
Biden, during his State of the Union address Tuesday night, reiterated that point, saying Putin had “badly miscalculated” by invading Ukraine and promised to make Moscow pay an economic “price.”
