Gallup: Independent Women Up for Grabs?

Many independent women are still up for grabs in the last month of the election, making this cohort a critical target group for both campaigns. According to a new Gallup report released today, Obama draws significant support among some in the independent woman subgroup: • those with no religious identification • those aged 18 to 34 • those with college educations • those who seldom or never attend church But McCain does well with some independent women too: • those who attend church weekly • those who are married • those aged 55 or older So who is up for grabs? Gallup reports independent women that are Catholic, middle aged, not college graduates, of average religiosity, and of mid-range incomes–nearly evenly divide between Obama and McCain and could easily shift in the remaining weeks. As I argued in my post yesterday, independent voters in general will decide later and exhibit more volatility in their political choices. Gallup agrees and notes independent women represent a swing group worth watching particularly closely in the days following last night’s vice presidential debate, especially compared to self-identified partisans. Gallup writes:

It’s a reasonable assumption that changing minds among partisan Democratic and Republican women will be difficult, although these groups remain highly important in terms of turnout. Indeed, motivating the “base” is a key dictum of modern-day politics. It has been argued that one motivation behind McCain’s choice of Palin as his vice-presidential running mate may have been to increase enthusiasm among Republican women. But it is the group of independent women who — based on the fact that they are currently about evenly divided between the two candidates — were perhaps the most important viewers of Thursday’s debate, at least in terms of the possibility that their voting preferences will change

Read the full Gallup analysis of independent women here.

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