WARSAW — Russian President Vladimir Putin and his battered-but-blooded invading forces could prove even more brutal in the next phase of the war in Ukraine following the Russian defeat around Kyiv and the atrocities discovered nearby, U.S. and European officials fear.
“It’s a clear example that they do not consider or do not think about any kind of consequences after the war, you know that actually,” a senior European official from a country said. “For Mr. Putin, it’s the same to have one process in Hague or several processes in Hague.”
The ghastly scenes in Bucha and other suburbs of Kyiv sparked international outrage and prompted U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland to evoke the memory of the Nuremberg trials after World War II, but many Western officials remain divided about the most prudent way to respond to the conflict. And there is a deepening dread that Putin, in his determination to bring the costly invasion to some kind of victorious outcome, will turn to more and more violent tactics, perhaps even chemical weapons, in the war against Ukraine.
“We should prepare for the worst,” the senior official said. “I see escalation as inevitable because this ruling class in Russia is definitely in favor of some victory in Ukraine. They’ve showed already that the sky is the limit for their inventiveness of how to proceed.”
RUSSIAN FORCES NEAR KYIV AND CHERNIHIV HAVE COMPLETELY WITHDRAWN, PENTAGON SAYS
One senior Baltic official surmised that Putin would authorize the use of chemical weapons only if it seemed useful to help Russian forces achieve important tactical victories. The stage could be set for such offensives as Russian forces redeploying from around Kyiv toward eastern Ukraine, where the bulk of the Ukrainian military is resisting a two-pronged attack.
“They can employ a weapon that doesn’t destroy a whole town, it could be a less deadly weapon,” a senior U.S. lawmaker who has been briefed about possible escalation risks told the Washington Examiner on condition of anonymity. “It’s a growing concern.”
Such a move in Ukraine would do even more damage to Putin’s reputation, as international monitors and law enforcement agencies build a case for war crimes charges.
“We have seen the dead bodies of civilians, some with bound hands, scattered in the streets,” Garland said Wednesday. “One of my predecessors, Attorney General Robert Jackson, later served as the chief American prosecutor at the Nuremberg Trials. Today, we are assisting international efforts to identify and hold accountable those responsible for atrocities in Ukraine. And we will continue to do so.”
Ukrainian officials want that accountability to come quickly, in the form of new sanctions on Russia and weaponry for Ukraine.
“The only way to avert Russian war expanding beyond Ukraine is to provide us with the fullest support,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted. “Maximum sanctions. All the weapons. The policy of ‘not provoking Putin’ has failed badly in past years. Help us contain this evil now or risk Putin testing the article 5 later.”
Even if Putin stops short of using chemical weapons, other senior European officials agree, other Ukrainian towns likely will face Bucha’s fate — whether because of a Russian policy choice or the quality of the troops sent into the conflict.
“The problem I believe is the very low morale of the Russian armed forces,” a second senior European official said, pointing to various indications they are an undisciplined force. “They are stealing the most unbelievable things — washing machines, fridges have been evacuated. So, people coming from poor regions of Russia’s far east probably have never been, anytime, outside of Russia. So, quite a low level of education, things like that.”
Some of those same troops are expected to reinforce the attack in the east, although their effectiveness is questionable after their defeat around Kyiv.
“This isn’t a computer game or stratego … Those forces do not just leave one area to fight in another,” retired Army Gen. Mark Hertling has argued. “You can’t throw units like these back into the fight and expect different results.”
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If Russian commanders shouldn’t expect more effectiveness, neither should Ukrainians expect more restraint, a third senior European official said.
“Their officers are, I think, calculating calmly, and a chemical weapon is just one tool in their arsenal,” the third official said. “It’s their tactics, it is their tactics — burn-to-the-ground tactics … We should be shocked, but not surprised because they have done it [before]. They have done it in Syria as well.”
