A key obstacle to new gun legislation in Republican controlled Washington is the calendar. The season for nominating candidates to run in the midterm is just days away and it begins in the heart of conservatism: Texas.
Gun rights is a visceral issue for many committed Republicans — the sort who tend show up in congressional primaries in red states and partisan-drawn districts. Indeed, an increasing number are motivated solely by the Second Amendment.
With millions poised to head to the polls in the coming months, proposals to restrict access to firearms from President Trump and other top Republicans could languish, despite the pressure for action created by the school shooting massacre in Parkland, Fla., that left 17 dead.
“When it gets to going after law-abiding citizens and their abilities to [exercise] the Second Amendment, that’s where it’s going to get a little dicey for many of us,” Rep. Mark Walker, R-N.C., said Friday during a brief interview with the Washington Examiner. In 2016, Trump won Walker’s district by nearly 15 percentage points.
It’s also primary season for the Democrats, and that could also contribute to gridlock on gun legislation.
Liberal voters are adamantly opposed to Trump, and they despise the National Rifle Association, the nation’s premier gun-rights organization. Democratic candidates could face heat from the Left if they work with the president, particularly on firearms policy that doesn’t meet the party’s standards for substantial gun control — or perhaps worse, is supported by the NRA.
“If you’re from a progressive district, you don’t want to be seen siding with Trump and the NRA, even on a background-check bill,” said a Democratic campaign consultant, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly.
Trump proposes raising the age limit to purchase firearms from 18 to 21, and strengthening existing federal background checks for prospective buyers. The president also backs arming teachers with concealed weapons, as long as they are willing and able, although he tweeted Saturday that he is leaving that recommendation up to the states.
The alleged shooter in the mass murder at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, in suburban Miami, was a 19-year-old former student with a history of violence and making threats. Florida Gov. Rick Scott, a Republican with a pristine gun-rights record, has proposed multiple reforms to state law, including raising the age limit for purchase firearms to 21.
But changes to federal law face headwinds in Congress.
Leading conservatives, breaking with Trump, are throwing cold water on new age limits. They also are making clear their opposition to any legislation prohibiting the freedom to purchase a wide variety of handguns and semi-automatic weapons. What might receive broad Republican support? Outlawing bump-stocks and strengthening background checks, with a focus on the mentally ill.
“I think, at this point, I don’t know that they know that raising the age limit will actually make schools safer,” said Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., who heads the House Freedom Caucus, a group of influential conservatives.
“I think most of the energy right now is not on the gun restriction side of things,” he added, “as maybe looking at background checks, looking at making the school a safer envelope and perhaps giving teachers the ability to do the concealed carry as long as they’re adept at being able to handle a firearm.”
Most Republicans on Capitol Hill are philosophically inclined to jealously protect Americans’ constitutional right to purchase and maintain firearms. But there have been some cracks in that consensus in the wake of the Parkland shooting.
Suburban Republicans from battleground districts, like Reps. Brian Mast of Florida, Peter Roskam of Illinois, and Leonard Lance of New Jersey, are highlighting their differences with the NRA. In Mast’s case, he now favors a federal assault weapons ban.
Still, there are fewer Republicans from districts threatened by Democrats in the midterm elections, than there are Republicans whose only political concern is winning re-nomination in their upcoming primary. And for many voters in those districts, gun rights is a major issue, if not the issue.
Republican incumbents are unlikely to concede any political pressure — doing so would appear insensitive and unseemly. But Republican strategists, granted the protection of anonymity, say that crossing GOP primary voters who prioritize the Second Amendment is absolutely a factor in how they vote in Congress.
The debate about guns, coming just as the six-month-long primary season is beginning, is sure to complicate any effort to pass legislation portrayed as restricting law-abiding Americans’ access to firearms, Republican operatives told the Washington Examiner.
“Pro-gun people, and people who vote on the gun issue, is growing. We harvest a lot more votes off of our Second Amendment position that we used to,” a veteran GOP strategist said. This strategist emphasized that that is largely because Democrats moved so far Left on guns, they pushed away millions of voters who are open to their message on other issues but care deeply about gun rights.
The NRA is hardly a bit player in all of this.
A Republican pollster who regularly tracks the sentiment of GOP primary voters said no organization is more respected among this cohort, or carries more influence, than the NRA.
The group, closely aligned with Trump, quickly announced its opposition to his proposal to raise the age limit to purchase firearms. Trump enjoys the strong support of Republican primary voters. Nevertheless, this GOP pollster predicted that grassroots conservatives would side with the NRA over the president in a debate over on gun policy.
If Trump gets into an extended policy battle with the NRA, his support among the GOP base could take a substantial hit, the pollster added. That dynamic is sure to weigh on congressional Republicans, who don’t nearly enjoy the trust of the grassroots that Trump does, as they ready for re-election.
“I don’t think you have a group that has a more baked-in positive opinion with GOP primary voters than does the NRA. That’s why Trump needs the NRA on his side. Going against the NRA would do devastating things to Trump with the base,” the Republican pollster said. “I’ve always told my clients: Endorsements are good. But there’s only one endorsement that has massive impact, and that’s the NRA.”
Disclosure: The wife of the author works as an adviser to Rick Scott.
Al Weaver contributed to this report from Oxon Hill, Md.
