Sen. Roy Blunt’s retirement could spark a competitive GOP primary in Missouri in 2022, with five prominent Republicans quickly emerging as potential contenders in a contest likely to be dominated by former President Donald Trump.
Republican sources with Missouri ties are watching the state’s secretary of state, Jay Ashcroft, who is the son of former attorney general under President George W. Bush and ex-Sen. John Ashcroft. Also on the watchlist: former Gov. Eric Greitens, who left office midterm amid controversy over an extramarital affair; state Attorney General Eric Schmitt; and Rep. Jason Smith, the top Republican on the House Budget Committee.
Whoever runs, party insiders expect the campaign to become a referendum on fidelity to Trump. “When asked what type of Republican they self-identify as, nearly 50% of Missouri [GOP] voters respond: ‘Trump Republican,’” Gregg Keller, a Republican strategist in St. Louis, said. “The primary will be a contest to hug him the tightest.” That would no doubt suit the former president, who plans to exert influence in GOP primaries up and down the ballot next year. The National Republican Senatorial Committee, meanwhile, will not intervene in open primaries.
Republicans in Missouri also are keeping an eye on Rep. Ann Wagner, who represents a suburban St. Louis congressional district.
Wagner was preparing to run for Senate in 2018 but pulled back when party leaders in Missouri and Washington, D.C., coalesced behind Josh Hawley. Wagner, former chairman of the Missouri Republican Party and U.S. ambassador to Luxembourg for Bush, could mount a campaign if the Trump lane was overcrowded and there was room for a pragmatic conservative less defined by ties to the 45th president.
Missouri this century has transformed from swing state to reliable GOP territory, with Republicans in the state being especially smitten with Trump. The winner of the Republican primary is likely to win in the general election, succeeding Blunt, who is leaving Congress after 12 years in the Senate and 14 in the House before that. Blunt’s departure also will open up a slot on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnel’s leadership team.
As chairman of the minority conference’s Policy Committee, Blunt is the No. 4 ranking Senate Republican.
