COUNCIL BLUFFS, Iowa — Jockeying for center-left Iowa Democrats could hand Bernie Sanders a delegate advantage in the first-in-the-nation voting state.
With two days until the Iowa caucuses, the Vermont senator, 78, has consolidated much of the liberal Democratic base, his late surge coming at the expense of Elizabeth Warren, according to some presidential primary polls.
But while Joe Biden retains his lead on fellow center-left candidates in the race, the former vice president’s inability to dispense with rivals Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar could hand Sanders a mathematical advantage, at least during the first round of voting, as they all vie for the 2020 nomination.
Louise Rojohn, 75, who is hoping for a Biden ticket with Warren, a Massachusetts senator, for the fall fight against President Trump, admitted vote-splitting by the center-left contenders was a concern. Backing Biden for his foreign policy chops, she added Sanders becoming the party’s nominee would give her pause about casting a ballot in the general election, even though she detests the White House incumbent.
“I do worry about it because I think there’s too many people in there right now,” the retired dry-cleaner from Newton told the Washington Examiner before a Biden event in her hometown. “You have to connect with people a little bit, and I don’t feel any connection with Bernie at all.”
Joe and Marilynn Leggio of Council Bluffs, who attended a Biden stop in the area, also shared their misgivings about the socialist. Joe Leggio, a 74-year-old retired electrician, said he was afraid about “Bernie supporters being all or nothing,” while his wife, 73, said it bothered her that “Bernie isn’t a Democrat.”
“We have enough a good Democrats,” the retired secretary quipped.
For Carrie Radloff, a precinct captain for Buttigieg in Sioux City, candidates like the former mayor from South Bend, Indiana, and Klobuchar, a Minnesota senator, were already disadvantaged by the caucus format because “only the diehards show up, and a lot of those diehards are going to be from the far left.”
“I see them, possibly not getting the kind of support at the caucuses because they have progressive ideas, they’re just presenting them in a reasonable way that conservatives can understand, which doesn’t resonate with the people on the far left,” the environment advocate, 44, said after a Buttigieg town hall near her.
Under Iowa Democratic Party’s caucus rules, any White House hopeful who fails to attract 15% support or more during the first round of voting is eliminated from the contest, with their backers free to join a rival campaign or pack up and go home. The final alignment results are then used to count the number of state delegates each camp gets, with those figures forming the basis of their national delegate allocation in a system similar to the Electoral College.
According to a Monmouth University poll released this week, if Klobuchar remains “viable” along with entrepreneur Andrew Yang, 22% of caucusgoers will stand in Biden’s corner, 22% in Sanders’s, 17% in Buttigieg’s, 16% in Warren’s, 12% in Klobuchar’s, and 5% in Yang’s. Biden, however, would pull 29%, Sanders 25%, Buttigieg 20%, and Warren 19% if the field were winnowed to four competitors.
“Klobuchar’s performance could be a real game changer in the final delegate allocation out of Iowa,” Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray said when his survey was published.
Yet Gary Kudym, 59, was hopeful “moderates will prevail,” imploring Democrats to consider electability if they are still undecided or if their favorite doesn’t reach the 15% threshold at their precinct on caucus night.
“You have to be realistic. If you feel the same about two or three candidates, you have to go for the one that you feel has the best chance of winning,” the Council Bluffs insurance agent said after the same Biden event with the Leggios. “Even if you don’t agree 100%, even if you believe that the other candidate’s the better person for the job, anything’s better than Trump.”
