Mitt Romney and Rick Perry knew they were headed for a two-man debate at the Reagan Presidential Library Wednesday night. There’s no doubt each would have loved to knock the other out, but when it was over, each walked away unvanquished, and the Republican presidential race is now a head-to-head contest after its first full-field debate. But despite a strong first showing, and a solid performance on the key issue of jobs, Perry could be heading for serious trouble on the hot-button issues of Social Security and immigration.
The first clash between the former governor of Massachusetts and the current governor of Texas came over jobs. The two governors started with subtle jabs at each other, beginning when Romney said Perry was not responsible for much of the job-creating atmosphere in Texas, and if Perry tried to claim he was, “it would be like Al Gore saying he invented the Internet.” It was Romney’s way of bringing up, without actually bringing up, the fact that Perry supported Democrat Gore way back in 1988.
Perry struck back with criticism that at first sounded like praise. Romney has a good record in private business, Perry said, “and he did a great job of creating jobs in the private sector all around the world.” That was Perry’s way of saying that Romney created jobs overseas, not here at home.
Such subtlety didn’t last long. By the time the exchange was over, Perry looked at Romney and said, “Michael Dukakis created jobs three times faster than you did, Mitt.” Without missing a beat, Romney shot back, “Well, as a matter of fact, George Bush and his predecessor created jobs at a faster rate than you did, governor.”
Score the jobs fight as a draw, or perhaps with a little edge to Perry. But after a strong start, the Texas governor ran into serious trouble over his description, in his book Fed Up, of Social Security as a “Ponzi scheme…violently tossing aside any respect for our founding principles.”
Asked about the quote, Perry began retreating immediately. “I think any of us that want to go back and change 70 years of what’s been going on in this country is probably going to have a difficult time,” he said. “And rather than spending a lot of time talking about what those folks were doing in the 30s and the 40s is a nice intellectual conversation — but the fact is we’ve got to be focused on how we’re going to change this program.” Perry assured the audience that people who are currently on Social Security, or will be on it in a few years “don’t need to worry about anything.”
But Perry couldn’t get out of his problem that quickly. Romney cited Fed Up and said, “You say that by any measure Social Security is a failure. You can’t say that to tens of millions of Americans who live on Social Security…Our nominee has to be someone who isn’t committed to abolishing Social Security, but who is committed to saving Social Security. I will make sure that we keep the program and make it financially secure.”
Perry tried to back away a little more. “We’re not trying to pick fights here,” he said. “We’re about fixing things.” He then stuck with his original words on Social Security. “It is a monstrous lie, it is a Ponzi scheme, to tell our kids who are 25 or 30 years old today, that you’re paying into a program that’s going to be there.”
The Romney camp immediately sensed weakness. Before the debate was over, Romney had sent out an email headlined PERRY DOES NOT BELIEVE SOCIAL SECURITY SHOULD EXIST, and after the debate was over Romney aides told reporters that Perry had done himself irreparable damage. Maybe it is irreparable, and maybe it’s not, but Perry has to find a better way to discuss Social Security, and do it fast. The next two Republican debates are in Florida, and Social Security is bound to be a major topic there.
The other area in which Perry is extremely vulnerable is immigration. When asked what would make the U.S.-Mexico border secure, Perry, a border-state governor, called for “boots on the ground.” But he offered no clear strategy for actually securing the border. And since he opposes a border fence, he could not cite the one measure that is overwhelmingly popular among Republicans. Perry was lucky that he was not pressed on his opposition to other popular measures, like the e-verify system that forces employers to establish that the people they hire are in this country legally. Nor was Perry pressured on the Texas policy of offering in-state tuition to illegal immigrants.
Romney, asked the same question, ticked off a plan. “First, we ought to have a fence,” he said. “Number two, we ought to have enough agents to secure that fence.” The third measure needed, Romney said, was to “turn off the magnet” of employers hiring illegal immigrants. “Sanctuary cities, giving tuition breaks to the kids of illegal aliens, employers who knowingly hire people who are here illegally — those things have to be stopped,” Romney said.
The two men didn’t get into a confrontation about immigration, although Romney was clearly ready for one. But there will be such a confrontation in the future, and Perry will probably lose. And that will mean big trouble with the Republican primary electorate.
There was a lot of talk before the debate about whether Perry could win simply by showing up and doing pretty well — that is, whether he is currently in such a dominant position in the Republican race that just not messing up would be a win. Well, Perry showed up and did pretty well. But in his positions and statements on Social Security and immigration, his campaign faces mortal danger.
